Squiggle 2024

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Sat Apr 20 21:44:49 2024 (R6)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

2024 ROUND 6 TIPS

Adelaide 86 - 71 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)
HGA: +9.4 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.2 pts

Brisbane Lions 82 - 78 Geelong Geelong
Gabba (QLD)
HGA: +6.6 pts
Ins/Outs: Geelong +4.3 pts

Carlton Carlton 82 - 76 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: Carlton +10.1 pts
Ins/Outs: Carlton +2.8 pts

Collingwood 80 - 79 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: +8.8 pts
Ins/Outs: +4.3 pts

North Melbourne 77 - 92 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: +1.7 pts
Ins/Outs: +1.6 pts

St Kilda 70 - 69 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: +0.8 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.3 pts

Sydney Sydney 83 - 73 Gold Coast
S.C.G. (NSW)
HGA: Sydney +7.5 pts
Ins/Outs: Sydney +3.6 pts

West Coast 60 - 88 Fremantle
Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA: +1.0 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.3 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE7
Tips after Round 5: 29

History...

In 2024, algorithm SQUIGGLE7 correctly tipped 31 games at an accuracy of 59.62%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1

Collingwood (76) defeated Richmond (46) at Princes Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 30)
Carlton (63) lost to Melbourne (101) at Princes Park (VIC) [Melbourne by 38)
Greater Western Sydney (105) defeated Gold Coast (61) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 44)
Sydney (56) lost to Brisbane Lions (81) at Blacktown (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 25)
Geelong (83) defeated Essendon (71) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 12)
Port Adelaide (92) defeated Fremantle (53) at Alberton Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 39)
Adelaide (117) defeated West Coast (50) at John Cain Arena (VIC) [Adelaide by 67)
Hawthorn (62) lost to Western Bulldogs (119) at York Park (TAS) [Western Bulldogs by 57)
St Kilda (84) defeated North Melbourne (65) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 19)

Round 0

Brisbane Lions (85) lost to Carlton (86) at Gabba (QLD) [Carlton by 1) Brisbane Lions by 13
Gold Coast (99) defeated Richmond (60) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 39) Gold Coast by 6
Greater Western Sydney (114) defeated Collingwood (82) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 32) Greater Western Sydney by 9
Sydney (86) defeated Melbourne (64) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 22) Melbourne by 2

Round 1

Carlton (86) defeated Richmond (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 5) Carlton by 0
Collingwood (69) lost to Sydney (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 33) Collingwood by 8
Essendon (107) defeated Hawthorn (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 24) Essendon by 0
Fremantle (93) defeated Brisbane Lions (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 23) Brisbane Lions by 7
Geelong (76) defeated St Kilda (68) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 8) Geelong by 20
Gold Coast (60) defeated Adelaide (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 6) Adelaide by 0
Greater Western Sydney (121) defeated North Melbourne (82) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 39) Greater Western Sydney by 51
Melbourne (109) defeated Western Bulldogs (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 45) Melbourne by 15
Port Adelaide (120) defeated West Coast (70) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 50) Port Adelaide by 52

Round 2

Adelaide (77) lost to Geelong (96) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 19) Adelaide by 18
Hawthorn (38) lost to Melbourne (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 55) Melbourne by 21
North Melbourne (76) lost to Fremantle (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 26) Fremantle by 10
Richmond (92) lost to Port Adelaide (122) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 30) Port Adelaide by 16
St Kilda (94) defeated Collingwood (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 15) Collingwood by 0
Sydney (131) defeated Essendon (101) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 30) Sydney by 26
West Coast (43) lost to Greater Western Sydney (108) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Greater Western Sydney by 65) Greater Western Sydney by 42
Western Bulldogs (115) defeated Gold Coast (67) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 48) Western Bulldogs by 8

Round 3

Brisbane Lions (72) lost to Collingwood (92) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 20) Brisbane Lions by 18
Essendon (71) defeated St Kilda (67) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 4) St Kilda by 5
Fremantle (69) defeated Adelaide (34) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 35) Fremantle by 15
Hawthorn (70) lost to Geelong (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 36) Geelong by 14
North Melbourne (81) lost to Carlton (137) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 56) Carlton by 23
Port Adelaide (89) lost to Melbourne (96) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 7) Port Adelaide by 0
Richmond (82) defeated Sydney (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 5) Sydney by 20
Western Bulldogs (106) defeated West Coast (30) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 76) Western Bulldogs by 48

Round 4

Adelaide (63) lost to Melbourne (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 15) Melbourne by 15
Brisbane Lions (112) defeated North Melbourne (42) at Norwood Oval (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 70) Brisbane Lions by 21
Collingwood (77) defeated Hawthorn (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 5) Collingwood by 20
Fremantle (63) lost to Carlton (73) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Carlton by 10) Fremantle by 4
Gold Coast (89) lost to Greater Western Sydney (117) at Adelaide Hills (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 28) Greater Western Sydney by 7
Port Adelaide (111) defeated Essendon (42) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 69) Port Adelaide by 25
Richmond (60) lost to St Kilda (67) at Norwood Oval (SA) [St Kilda by 7) St Kilda by 10
West Coast (78) lost to Sydney (104) at Adelaide Hills (SA) [Sydney by 26) Sydney by 49
Western Bulldogs (91) lost to Geelong (95) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 4) Western Bulldogs by 0

Round 5

Carlton (98) lost to Adelaide (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 2) Carlton by 18
Geelong (139) defeated North Melbourne (64) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 75) Geelong by 48
Gold Coast (109) defeated Hawthorn (56) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 53) Gold Coast by 12
Greater Western Sydney (80) defeated St Kilda (79) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 1) Greater Western Sydney by 12
Melbourne (60) lost to Brisbane Lions (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 22) Melbourne by 12
Port Adelaide (66) defeated Fremantle (63) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 3) Port Adelaide by 16
West Coast (109) defeated Richmond (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 39) Richmond by 11
Western Bulldogs (67) lost to Essendon (96) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 29) Western Bulldogs by 15

Round 6

Adelaide (75) lost to Essendon (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Essendon by 3) Adelaide by 16
Brisbane Lions (36) lost to Geelong (55) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 19) Brisbane Lions by 4
Carlton (117) defeated Greater Western Sydney (98) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 19) Carlton by 5
Collingwood (123) defeated Port Adelaide (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 42) Collingwood by 1
St Kilda (64) lost to Western Bulldogs (124) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 60) St Kilda by 1
West Coast (73) defeated Fremantle (29) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 44) Fremantle by 28

Round 7

Round 8

Round 9

Round 10

Round 11

Round 12

Round 13

Round 14

Round 15

Round 16

Round 17

Round 18

Round 19

Round 20

Round 21

Round 22

Round 23

Round 24

Elimination Final

Semi-Final

Preliminary Final

Grand Final

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

		Wins	%
1	Geelong	17.2	125.9%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2	Melbourne	14.7	124.3%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
3	Carlton	14.5	112.6%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
4	Greater Western Sydney	14.3	114.3%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
5	Sydney	13.7	111.4%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
6	Port Adelaide	13.3	111.9%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
7	Western Bulldogs	12.4	113.2%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
8	Brisbane Lions	12.3	115.0%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
9	Gold Coast	12.5	106.4%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
10	Collingwood	12.3	105.6%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
11	Essendon	11.9	95.2%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
12	Fremantle	11.5	100.8%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
13	St Kilda	10.7	99.5%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
14	Adelaide	9.0	93.3%	5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
15	West Coast	9.1	81.1%	5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
16	Richmond	7.5	83.0%	8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
17	Hawthorn	7.4	82.2%	8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
18	North Melbourne	4.6	65.8%	13 14 15 16 17 18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 6

Brisbane Lions 77 - 76 Geelong Geelong
Gabba (QLD)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.505917 - 0.494083RealScores: 76.937259 - 76.315180

North Melbourne 77 - 92 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.343658 - 0.656342RealScores: 76.851495 - 91.784919

Sydney Sydney 83 - 73 Gold Coast
S.C.G. (NSW)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.609534 - 0.390466RealScores: 83.454212 - 72.864084

West Coast 64 - 82 Fremantle
Perth Stadium (WA)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.317564 - 0.682436RealScores: 64.490642 - 81.928754

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	6 (6.50)	1	133.2
2	Greater Western Sydney	5 (5.00)	1	129.7
3	Sydney	5 (4.60)	1	125.0
4	Carlton	5 (5.00)	1	117.5
5	Port Adelaide	4 (4.00)	2	121.2
6	Melbourne	4 (4.00)	2	118.5
7	Fremantle	4 (3.65)	3	109.7
8	Essendon	4 (4.00)	2	92.7
9	Western Bulldogs	3 (3.00)	3	123.0
10	Brisbane Lions	3 (2.50)	4	105.9
11	Gold Coast	3 (3.40)	3	102.4
12	Collingwood	3 (3.00)	3	97.6
13	St Kilda	2 (2.00)	4	89.6
14	West Coast	2 (2.35)	5	75.5
15	Adelaide	1 (1.00)	5	84.1
16	Richmond	1 (1.00)	5	79.5
17	Hawthorn	1 (0.63)	5	72.2
18	North Melbourne	0 (0.37)	6	60.0

Round 7

Essendon 77 - 88 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.383566 - 0.616434RealScores: 76.614270 - 87.839387

Fremantle 74 - 73 Western Bulldogs
Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500272 - 0.499728RealScores: 73.558370 - 73.529602

Geelong Geelong 83 - 78 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.552653 - 0.447347RealScores: 83.477196 - 78.194977

Gold Coast 89 - 65 West Coast
Carrara (QLD)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.746322 - 0.253678RealScores: 89.184763 - 65.066156

Greater Western Sydney 80 - 78 Brisbane Lions
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.527392 - 0.472608RealScores: 80.458800 - 77.645137

Hawthorn 74 - 87 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.364593 - 0.635407RealScores: 74.075344 - 87.052008

North Melbourne 74 - 97 Adelaide
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.26 wins - 0.74 winsRealProbs: 0.258849 - 0.741151RealScores: 73.839399 - 97.378540

Port Adelaide 86 - 70 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.666419 - 0.333581RealScores: 85.586812 - 69.696643

Richmond 66 - 92 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.24 wins - 0.76 winsRealProbs: 0.237698 - 0.762302RealScores: 65.589050 - 91.551327

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	7 (7.05)	1	129.5
2	Greater Western Sydney	6 (5.52)	1	126.1
3	Sydney	5 (5.21)	2	124.0
4	Port Adelaide	5 (4.64)	2	121.4
5	Melbourne	5 (4.72)	2	121.3
6	Carlton	5 (5.45)	2	114.2
7	Fremantle	4 (4.15)	4	108.4
8	Gold Coast	4 (4.11)	3	106.5
9	Collingwood	4 (3.60)	3	99.7
10	Essendon	4 (4.40)	3	91.9
11	Western Bulldogs	3 (3.50)	4	119.8
12	Brisbane Lions	3 (2.98)	5	104.6
13	West Coast	3 (2.63)	5	75.2
14	Adelaide	2 (1.71)	5	90.5
15	St Kilda	2 (2.36)	5	88.4
16	Richmond	1 (1.28)	6	78.4
17	Hawthorn	1 (1.01)	6	73.9
18	North Melbourne	1 (0.66)	6	61.9

Round 8

Adelaide 78 - 90 Port Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.377259 - 0.622741RealScores: 78.273651 - 90.079729

Brisbane Lions 75 - 66 Gold Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.590120 - 0.409880RealScores: 74.670334 - 65.869996

Carlton Carlton 85 - 81 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.534561 - 0.465439RealScores: 84.851454 - 81.326559

Melbourne 77 - 71 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.558593 - 0.441407RealScores: 76.628085 - 70.778812

Richmond 74 - 73 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.506164 - 0.493836RealScores: 73.997204 - 73.349275

St Kilda 94 - 65 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.789414 - 0.210586RealScores: 94.211153 - 64.915511

Sydney Sydney 88 - 90 Greater Western Sydney
S.C.G. (NSW)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.476952 - 0.523048RealScores: 87.636028 - 90.014177

West Coast 81 - 82 Essendon
Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.497048 - 0.502952RealScores: 81.780889 - 82.092290

Western Bulldogs 89 - 69 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.711765 - 0.288235RealScores: 89.335388 - 68.948253

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	7 (7.49)	2	125.1
2	Greater Western Sydney	6 (6.05)	2	123.0
3	Sydney	6 (5.69)	2	120.2
4	Carlton	6 (5.98)	2	113.0
5	Port Adelaide	5 (5.25)	3	120.6
6	Melbourne	5 (5.28)	3	119.7
7	Fremantle	5 (4.65)	4	107.3
8	Gold Coast	5 (4.53)	3	104.3
9	Essendon	5 (4.90)	3	92.9
10	Western Bulldogs	4 (4.18)	4	120.9
11	Brisbane Lions	4 (3.56)	5	105.5
12	Collingwood	4 (4.07)	4	99.2
13	St Kilda	3 (3.11)	5	94.1
14	West Coast	3 (3.13)	6	77.7
15	Adelaide	2 (2.10)	6	90.0
16	Richmond	2 (1.78)	6	80.6
17	Hawthorn	1 (1.33)	7	74.3
18	North Melbourne	1 (0.91)	7	62.7

Round 9

Adelaide 71 - 78 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.426303 - 0.573697RealScores: 70.849631 - 78.122912

Carlton Carlton 73 - 81 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.422659 - 0.577341RealScores: 72.965802 - 80.579494

Collingwood 96 - 69 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.770559 - 0.229441RealScores: 96.237073 - 69.288417

Essendon 82 - 91 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.403277 - 0.596723RealScores: 81.811691 - 91.221880

Fremantle 75 - 74 Sydney Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.511092 - 0.488908RealScores: 75.410944 - 74.372706

Geelong Geelong 92 - 74 Port Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.683471 - 0.316529RealScores: 92.016782 - 74.477372

Gold Coast 101 - 65 North Melbourne
Marrara Oval (NT)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.837651 - 0.162349RealScores: 100.510531 - 64.521023

Hawthorn 66 - 75 St Kilda
York Park (TAS)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.411752 - 0.588248RealScores: 66.262857 - 74.889974

Richmond 76 - 95 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.30 wins - 0.70 winsRealProbs: 0.301032 - 0.698968RealScores: 75.639249 - 94.718861

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	8 (8.15)	2	124.9
2	Greater Western Sydney	7 (6.64)	2	121.7
3	Melbourne	6 (5.85)	3	118.6
4	Sydney	6 (6.18)	3	117.9
5	Port Adelaide	6 (5.59)	3	115.6
6	Carlton	6 (6.41)	3	110.6
7	Western Bulldogs	5 (4.86)	4	121.4
8	Gold Coast	5 (5.33)	4	109.1
9	Fremantle	5 (5.16)	5	106.6
10	Collingwood	5 (4.81)	4	102.8
11	Essendon	5 (5.31)	4	92.5
12	Brisbane Lions	4 (4.13)	6	105.9
13	St Kilda	4 (3.69)	5	95.9
14	Adelaide	3 (2.53)	6	90.1
15	West Coast	3 (3.40)	7	77.1
16	Richmond	2 (2.11)	7	80.6
17	Hawthorn	2 (1.75)	7	75.6
18	North Melbourne	1 (1.11)	8	62.8

Round 10

Brisbane Lions 92 - 63 Richmond
Gabba (QLD)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.789545 - 0.210455RealScores: 92.328847 - 63.016434

Collingwood 91 - 71 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.706667 - 0.293333RealScores: 90.784987 - 70.922959

Essendon 101 - 73 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.774368 - 0.225632RealScores: 100.717449 - 73.305504

Gold Coast 71 - 78 Geelong Geelong
Marrara Oval (NT)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.423053 - 0.576947RealScores: 70.771070 - 78.348058

Greater Western Sydney 92 - 82 Western Bulldogs
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.597265 - 0.402735RealScores: 91.891777 - 82.431613

Port Adelaide 95 - 68 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.772181 - 0.227819RealScores: 94.941412 - 67.796158

St Kilda 71 - 60 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.618025 - 0.381975RealScores: 71.453890 - 60.082263

Sydney Sydney 88 - 83 Carlton Carlton
S.C.G. (NSW)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.549636 - 0.450364RealScores: 87.968879 - 83.189006

West Coast 68 - 87 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.308601 - 0.691399RealScores: 68.286879 - 86.608771

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	9 (8.73)	2	123.6
2	Greater Western Sydney	7 (7.23)	3	120.7
3	Melbourne	7 (6.52)	3	119.4
4	Sydney	7 (6.73)	3	116.6
5	Carlton	7 (6.86)	3	108.9
6	Port Adelaide	6 (6.33)	4	117.7
7	Gold Coast	6 (5.76)	4	107.2
8	Fremantle	6 (5.55)	5	104.5
9	Essendon	6 (6.05)	4	96.3
10	Western Bulldogs	5 (5.27)	5	117.6
11	Brisbane Lions	5 (4.88)	6	109.2
12	Collingwood	5 (5.49)	5	105.0
13	St Kilda	4 (4.30)	6	97.7
14	West Coast	4 (3.73)	7	77.3
15	Adelaide	3 (2.84)	7	88.7
16	Richmond	2 (2.35)	8	79.3
17	Hawthorn	2 (2.01)	8	75.2
18	North Melbourne	1 (1.37)	9	63.7

Round 11

Adelaide 90 - 71 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.692305 - 0.307695RealScores: 89.802682 - 71.390649

Carlton Carlton 84 - 71 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.637241 - 0.362759RealScores: 83.973821 - 70.826969

Fremantle 74 - 72 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.523839 - 0.476161RealScores: 73.662808 - 71.651440

Geelong Geelong 92 - 76 Greater Western Sydney
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.669715 - 0.330285RealScores: 91.939572 - 75.733857

Hawthorn 64 - 80 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.331313 - 0.668687RealScores: 64.091648 - 80.198799

Melbourne 78 - 61 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.679934 - 0.320066RealScores: 77.842513 - 60.648784

North Melbourne 73 - 112 Port Adelaide
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.14 wins - 0.86 winsRealProbs: 0.144988 - 0.855012RealScores: 72.953946 - 111.631678

Richmond 80 - 87 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.423917 - 0.576083RealScores: 79.652466 - 87.031678

Western Bulldogs 90 - 81 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.592228 - 0.407772RealScores: 90.075822 - 81.080640

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	9 (9.38)	3	123.4
2	Greater Western Sydney	8 (7.57)	3	116.8
3	Port Adelaide	7 (7.15)	4	120.6
4	Melbourne	7 (7.18)	4	120.1
5	Sydney	7 (7.14)	4	113.9
6	Carlton	7 (7.49)	4	109.6
7	Essendon	7 (6.62)	4	97.4
8	Western Bulldogs	6 (5.85)	5	117.0
9	Brisbane Lions	6 (5.53)	6	110.4
10	Gold Coast	6 (6.13)	5	104.9
11	Collingwood	6 (5.97)	5	104.3
12	Fremantle	6 (6.07)	6	104.3
13	St Kilda	5 (4.64)	6	95.9
14	Adelaide	4 (3.52)	7	91.7
15	West Coast	4 (4.06)	8	77.5
16	Richmond	3 (2.78)	8	80.4
17	Hawthorn	2 (2.36)	9	75.6
18	North Melbourne	2 (1.55)	9	63.9

Round 12

Collingwood 82 - 84 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.469247 - 0.530753RealScores: 81.800553 - 84.370689

Geelong Geelong 101 - 65 Richmond
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.838764 - 0.161236RealScores: 100.658485 - 64.501501

Gold Coast 85 - 68 Essendon
Carrara (QLD)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.673914 - 0.326086RealScores: 84.918302 - 68.308417

Hawthorn 77 - 76 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.516490 - 0.483510RealScores: 76.802051 - 75.651489

Melbourne 77 - 58 Fremantle
Traeger Park (NT)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.697231 - 0.302769RealScores: 77.049172 - 58.144471

Port Adelaide 91 - 82 Carlton Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.595534 - 0.404466RealScores: 91.089614 - 81.793022

West Coast 74 - 76 St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.474790 - 0.525210RealScores: 73.674533 - 75.690573

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	10 (10.18)	3	125.7
2	Melbourne	8 (7.86)	4	121.0
3	Port Adelaide	8 (7.74)	4	119.8
4	Greater Western Sydney	8 (7.57)	3	116.8
5	Carlton	8 (7.90)	4	107.8
6	Sydney	7 (7.14)	4	113.9
7	Gold Coast	7 (6.79)	5	106.4
8	Essendon	7 (6.96)	5	96.0
9	Western Bulldogs	6 (6.38)	6	115.8
10	Brisbane Lions	6 (5.53)	6	110.4
11	Collingwood	6 (6.44)	6	103.7
12	Fremantle	6 (6.40)	7	101.8
13	St Kilda	5 (5.16)	7	96.4
14	West Coast	5 (4.54)	8	78.8
15	Adelaide	4 (4.00)	8	92.3
16	Richmond	3 (2.98)	9	78.9
17	Hawthorn	3 (2.87)	9	77.4
18	North Melbourne	2 (1.55)	9	63.9

Round 13

Adelaide 91 - 73 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.684309 - 0.315691RealScores: 90.786508 - 73.164903

Collingwood 71 - 81 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.395698 - 0.604302RealScores: 70.995812 - 81.088447

Essendon 76 - 90 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.349301 - 0.650699RealScores: 76.059804 - 90.462190

Hawthorn 72 - 93 Greater Western Sydney
York Park (TAS)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.287633 - 0.712367RealScores: 72.104312 - 92.553848

St Kilda 71 - 68 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.545276 - 0.454724RealScores: 71.451145 - 67.543186

Sydney Sydney 81 - 83 Geelong Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.473410 - 0.526590RealScores: 81.398697 - 83.429975

West Coast 99 - 73 North Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.770118 - 0.229882RealScores: 99.445426 - 72.549969

Western Bulldogs 78 - 75 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.532904 - 0.467096RealScores: 77.547911 - 74.886532

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	11 (10.70)	3	123.8
2	Carlton	9 (8.54)	4	108.6
3	Melbourne	8 (8.45)	5	120.5
4	Port Adelaide	8 (7.74)	4	119.8
5	Greater Western Sydney	8 (8.26)	4	117.7
6	Sydney	8 (7.62)	4	112.5
7	Western Bulldogs	7 (6.91)	6	114.9
8	Gold Coast	7 (7.25)	6	105.5
9	Collingwood	7 (6.84)	6	102.5
10	Essendon	7 (7.33)	6	95.1
11	Brisbane Lions	6 (6.01)	7	109.2
12	Fremantle	6 (6.40)	7	101.8
13	St Kilda	6 (5.70)	7	97.1
14	Adelaide	5 (4.67)	8	94.5
15	West Coast	5 (5.28)	9	82.3
16	Richmond	3 (3.31)	10	79.0
17	Hawthorn	3 (3.18)	10	77.4
18	North Melbourne	2 (1.81)	10	64.6

Round 14

Adelaide 82 - 84 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.473796 - 0.526204RealScores: 82.401522 - 84.281260

Brisbane Lions 78 - 60 St Kilda
Gabba (QLD)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.687711 - 0.312289RealScores: 77.597728 - 59.641238

Greater Western Sydney 96 - 84 Port Adelaide
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.620610 - 0.379390RealScores: 95.525776 - 83.916090

North Melbourne 69 - 108 Collingwood
Docklands (VIC)0.15 wins - 0.85 winsRealProbs: 0.146303 - 0.853697RealScores: 69.293138 - 107.761540

Richmond 79 - 78 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.510339 - 0.489661RealScores: 78.874099 - 78.554263

Western Bulldogs 83 - 64 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.699810 - 0.300190RealScores: 83.126264 - 63.961708

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	11 (10.70)	3	123.8
2	Greater Western Sydney	9 (8.87)	4	117.4
3	Carlton	9 (8.54)	4	108.6
4	Melbourne	8 (8.45)	5	120.5
5	Port Adelaide	8 (8.13)	5	116.9
6	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.58)	6	115.8
7	Sydney	8 (8.14)	5	111.6
8	Collingwood	8 (7.66)	6	105.7
9	Brisbane Lions	7 (6.67)	7	110.5
10	Gold Coast	7 (7.25)	6	105.5
11	Fremantle	7 (6.72)	7	99.7
12	Essendon	7 (7.33)	6	95.1
13	St Kilda	6 (6.03)	8	95.6
14	Adelaide	5 (5.15)	9	94.8
15	West Coast	5 (5.28)	9	82.3
16	Richmond	4 (3.82)	10	80.3
17	Hawthorn	4 (3.68)	10	78.8
18	North Melbourne	2 (2.00)	11	64.6

Round 15

Carlton Carlton 80 - 82 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.464982 - 0.535018RealScores: 79.511531 - 82.160642

Essendon 91 - 73 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.688571 - 0.311429RealScores: 90.957365 - 72.915814

Fremantle 70 - 65 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.556401 - 0.443599RealScores: 70.098687 - 65.294244

Greater Western Sydney 92 - 86 Sydney Sydney
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.570770 - 0.429230RealScores: 91.965418 - 85.684787

Melbourne 109 - 58 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.93 wins - 0.07 winsRealProbs: 0.927651 - 0.072349RealScores: 109.394871 - 57.527497

Port Adelaide 80 - 77 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.544902 - 0.455098RealScores: 80.284562 - 76.645163

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	11 (11.23)	4	122.3
2	Melbourne	9 (9.35)	5	124.7
3	Greater Western Sydney	9 (9.44)	5	116.6
4	Port Adelaide	9 (8.66)	5	116.1
5	Sydney	9 (8.58)	5	110.2
6	Carlton	9 (9.01)	5	107.8
7	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.58)	6	115.8
8	Collingwood	8 (7.66)	6	105.7
9	Gold Coast	8 (7.70)	6	104.7
10	Essendon	8 (8.00)	6	96.9
11	Brisbane Lions	7 (7.14)	8	109.4
12	Fremantle	7 (7.27)	8	100.2
13	St Kilda	6 (6.03)	8	95.6
14	West Coast	6 (5.61)	9	82.1
15	Adelaide	5 (5.15)	9	94.8
16	Richmond	4 (3.82)	10	80.3
17	Hawthorn	4 (3.68)	10	78.8
18	North Melbourne	2 (2.10)	12	63.7

Round 16

Adelaide 82 - 88 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.423276 - 0.576724RealScores: 81.672922 - 88.458247

Brisbane Lions 71 - 68 Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.541119 - 0.458881RealScores: 71.122740 - 67.966393

Geelong Geelong 90 - 71 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.704450 - 0.295550RealScores: 90.295620 - 70.660172

Gold Coast 79 - 74 Collingwood
Carrara (QLD)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.567458 - 0.432542RealScores: 79.465226 - 73.637769

North Melbourne 68 - 111 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.12 wins - 0.88 winsRealProbs: 0.120365 - 0.879635RealScores: 68.464543 - 111.243255

Richmond 74 - 96 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.269744 - 0.730256RealScores: 74.051748 - 96.395603

St Kilda 78 - 77 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.519279 - 0.480721RealScores: 78.139778 - 77.143677

Sydney Sydney 84 - 66 Fremantle
S.C.G. (NSW)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.685587 - 0.314413RealScores: 83.765431 - 66.018219

West Coast 82 - 73 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.599896 - 0.400104RealScores: 81.935203 - 72.710436

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	12 (11.91)	4	122.7
2	Melbourne	10 (9.82)	5	122.7
3	Greater Western Sydney	10 (10.00)	5	116.1
4	Carlton	10 (9.71)	5	109.1
5	Port Adelaide	9 (9.15)	6	115.0
6	Sydney	9 (9.25)	6	111.1
7	Western Bulldogs	8 (8.43)	7	118.6
8	Brisbane Lions	8 (7.67)	8	109.1
9	Gold Coast	8 (8.26)	7	104.9
10	Collingwood	8 (8.11)	7	104.9
11	Fremantle	8 (7.60)	8	98.6
12	Essendon	8 (8.31)	7	95.6
13	St Kilda	7 (6.54)	8	96.0
14	Adelaide	6 (5.58)	9	94.6
15	West Coast	6 (6.20)	10	83.7
16	Richmond	4 (4.11)	11	80.1
17	Hawthorn	4 (4.09)	11	79.4
18	North Melbourne	2 (2.25)	13	63.6

Round 17

Brisbane Lions 86 - 63 Adelaide
Gabba (QLD)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.734907 - 0.265093RealScores: 85.911288 - 63.061256

Collingwood 89 - 75 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.646836 - 0.353164RealScores: 89.247117 - 75.206539

Fremantle 83 - 65 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.687167 - 0.312833RealScores: 82.624647 - 64.721832

Geelong Geelong 94 - 59 Hawthorn
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.829960 - 0.170040RealScores: 94.116881 - 59.268083

Greater Western Sydney 91 - 83 Carlton Carlton
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.592538 - 0.407462RealScores: 91.319980 - 82.988487

Melbourne 97 - 58 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.861233 - 0.138767RealScores: 97.288226 - 57.607424

North Melbourne 68 - 97 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.21 wins - 0.79 winsRealProbs: 0.210322 - 0.789678RealScores: 67.851038 - 97.180516

Port Adelaide 92 - 81 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.616266 - 0.383734RealScores: 91.874914 - 81.005895

St Kilda 77 - 76 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.511639 - 0.488361RealScores: 76.951374 - 76.788451

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	13 (12.70)	4	124.4
2	Melbourne	11 (10.65)	5	125.1
3	Greater Western Sydney	11 (10.58)	5	115.7
4	Port Adelaide	10 (9.76)	6	114.9
5	Sydney	10 (9.75)	6	110.4
6	Carlton	10 (10.13)	6	107.9
7	Western Bulldogs	9 (8.82)	7	116.3
8	Gold Coast	9 (9.02)	7	107.1
9	Collingwood	9 (8.74)	7	105.7
10	Essendon	9 (8.68)	7	94.8
11	Brisbane Lions	8 (8.38)	9	110.5
12	Fremantle	8 (8.27)	9	100.2
13	St Kilda	7 (7.04)	9	96.2
14	Adelaide	6 (5.88)	10	93.2
15	West Coast	6 (6.37)	11	82.1
16	Richmond	4 (4.44)	12	80.0
17	Hawthorn	4 (4.30)	12	78.4
18	North Melbourne	2 (2.50)	14	63.9

Round 18

Adelaide 76 - 70 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.573574 - 0.426426RealScores: 76.311764 - 70.058612

Collingwood 77 - 83 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.432652 - 0.567348RealScores: 77.240485 - 82.854795

Gold Coast 83 - 77 Port Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.571342 - 0.428658RealScores: 82.662849 - 76.639273

Hawthorn 66 - 71 Fremantle
York Park (TAS)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.447411 - 0.552589RealScores: 66.447574 - 70.564438

Melbourne 88 - 65 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.733857 - 0.266143RealScores: 87.886568 - 65.151280

Richmond 80 - 97 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.317266 - 0.682734RealScores: 79.890223 - 97.357433

Sydney Sydney 116 - 66 North Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.918973 - 0.081027RealScores: 116.441255 - 66.331540

West Coast 68 - 85 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.329167 - 0.670833RealScores: 68.369998 - 84.683087

Western Bulldogs 84 - 83 Carlton Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.519747 - 0.480253RealScores: 84.417672 - 83.551789

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	13 (13.26)	5	123.4
2	Melbourne	11 (11.35)	6	125.7
3	Greater Western Sydney	11 (11.25)	6	116.1
4	Sydney	11 (10.63)	6	113.6
5	Carlton	11 (10.63)	6	107.3
6	Port Adelaide	10 (10.20)	7	113.5
7	Gold Coast	10 (9.57)	7	107.1
8	Western Bulldogs	9 (9.33)	8	115.4
9	Brisbane Lions	9 (9.03)	9	111.2
10	Collingwood	9 (9.18)	8	104.9
11	Fremantle	9 (8.81)	9	100.5
12	Essendon	9 (8.98)	8	93.6
13	St Kilda	7 (7.48)	10	96.0
14	West Coast	7 (6.72)	11	82.0
15	Adelaide	6 (6.44)	11	94.0
16	Richmond	5 (4.78)	12	80.1
17	Hawthorn	5 (4.76)	12	79.1
18	North Melbourne	3 (2.61)	14	63.5

Round 19

Brisbane Lions 84 - 71 Sydney Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.642496 - 0.357504RealScores: 84.443294 - 70.918069

Carlton Carlton 113 - 67 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.895545 - 0.104455RealScores: 112.751192 - 67.128574

Essendon 85 - 76 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.602241 - 0.397759RealScores: 85.065254 - 75.914869

Fremantle 64 - 72 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.408181 - 0.591819RealScores: 63.571020 - 71.622624

Geelong Geelong 89 - 72 Western Bulldogs
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.677577 - 0.322423RealScores: 89.334883 - 72.370362

Greater Western Sydney 86 - 74 Gold Coast
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.630523 - 0.369477RealScores: 86.444016 - 74.242718

Hawthorn 69 - 87 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.306156 - 0.693844RealScores: 68.843948 - 87.409403

Port Adelaide 103 - 72 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.799963 - 0.200037RealScores: 102.904762 - 72.234425

St Kilda 85 - 64 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.720550 - 0.279450RealScores: 85.335629 - 64.029477

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	14 (13.92)	5	123.4
2	Melbourne	12 (11.93)	6	125.0
3	Greater Western Sydney	12 (11.86)	6	116.1
4	Port Adelaide	11 (10.97)	7	115.0
5	Sydney	11 (11.00)	7	111.9
6	Carlton	11 (11.49)	7	110.1
7	Western Bulldogs	10 (9.67)	8	113.2
8	Brisbane Lions	10 (9.66)	9	111.7
9	Collingwood	10 (9.86)	8	106.0
10	Gold Coast	10 (9.96)	8	105.8
11	Essendon	10 (9.56)	8	94.5
12	Fremantle	9 (9.23)	10	99.9
13	St Kilda	8 (8.17)	10	97.7
14	Adelaide	7 (6.85)	11	93.7
15	West Coast	7 (7.03)	12	81.7
16	Richmond	5 (5.02)	13	79.5
17	Hawthorn	5 (5.09)	13	79.1
18	North Melbourne	3 (2.75)	15	63.2

Round 20

Adelaide 85 - 68 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.680924 - 0.319076RealScores: 84.871914 - 67.581626

Carlton Carlton 92 - 81 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.619268 - 0.380732RealScores: 91.877884 - 81.004753

Collingwood 95 - 73 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.728066 - 0.271934RealScores: 95.127983 - 73.020428

Fremantle 78 - 66 West Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.630774 - 0.369226RealScores: 78.496987 - 66.372942

Gold Coast 68 - 73 Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.434380 - 0.565620RealScores: 67.640892 - 72.899438

Melbourne 88 - 71 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.670242 - 0.329758RealScores: 87.737004 - 71.480668

North Melbourne 64 - 111 Geelong Geelong
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.10 wins - 0.90 winsRealProbs: 0.095029 - 0.904971RealScores: 63.907814 - 111.291531

St Kilda 77 - 71 Essendon
Docklands (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.573700 - 0.426300RealScores: 77.461966 - 71.379277

Sydney Sydney 88 - 83 Western Bulldogs
S.C.G. (NSW)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.570005 - 0.429995RealScores: 88.430695 - 82.725767

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	15 (14.79)	5	125.7
2	Melbourne	13 (12.58)	6	124.9
3	Greater Western Sydney	12 (12.21)	7	114.1
4	Sydney	12 (11.56)	7	111.6
5	Carlton	12 (12.09)	7	110.3
6	Port Adelaide	11 (11.37)	8	113.4
7	Collingwood	11 (10.56)	8	107.1
8	Western Bulldogs	10 (10.12)	9	112.0
9	Brisbane Lions	10 (10.21)	10	111.5
10	Gold Coast	10 (10.41)	9	105.1
11	Fremantle	10 (9.84)	10	100.8
12	Essendon	10 (10.01)	9	94.4
13	St Kilda	9 (8.73)	10	98.3
14	Adelaide	8 (7.51)	11	95.1
15	West Coast	7 (7.41)	13	81.8
16	Richmond	5 (5.32)	14	79.3
17	Hawthorn	5 (5.43)	14	79.1
18	North Melbourne	3 (2.88)	16	62.9

Round 21

Collingwood 82 - 84 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.471071 - 0.528929RealScores: 82.324970 - 83.853044

Essendon 76 - 68 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.594486 - 0.405514RealScores: 76.408159 - 68.261061

Geelong Geelong 95 - 63 Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.809609 - 0.190391RealScores: 95.106625 - 63.137655

Greater Western Sydney 97 - 68 Hawthorn
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.789984 - 0.210016RealScores: 97.013406 - 67.644755

North Melbourne 79 - 97 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.307305 - 0.692695RealScores: 78.520399 - 96.971252

Port Adelaide 93 - 83 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.618965 - 0.381035RealScores: 93.445963 - 82.701777

St Kilda 66 - 71 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.441887 - 0.558113RealScores: 66.410416 - 70.828551

West Coast 73 - 81 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.402401 - 0.597599RealScores: 72.888835 - 81.362084

Western Bulldogs 74 - 80 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.420979 - 0.579021RealScores: 73.520187 - 80.063653

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	16 (15.56)	5	126.7
2	Melbourne	13 (13.14)	7	124.0
3	Greater Western Sydney	13 (12.97)	7	115.3
4	Carlton	13 (12.60)	7	109.8
5	Port Adelaide	12 (11.97)	8	113.3
6	Sydney	12 (11.96)	8	110.2
7	Brisbane Lions	11 (10.74)	10	111.3
8	Western Bulldogs	11 (10.56)	9	111.0
9	Collingwood	11 (11.05)	9	106.7
10	Gold Coast	11 (10.99)	9	105.4
11	Essendon	11 (10.58)	9	95.1
12	Fremantle	10 (10.27)	11	100.2
13	St Kilda	9 (9.19)	11	98.1
14	Adelaide	8 (7.73)	12	93.4
15	West Coast	8 (7.83)	13	82.2
16	Richmond	6 (5.99)	14	81.3
17	Hawthorn	6 (5.67)	14	78.6
18	North Melbourne	3 (3.21)	17	63.7

Round 22

Adelaide 80 - 83 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.458230 - 0.541770RealScores: 80.484267 - 83.199702

Brisbane Lions 85 - 73 Greater Western Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.623925 - 0.376075RealScores: 84.645384 - 73.458554

Carlton Carlton 91 - 68 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.737267 - 0.262733RealScores: 90.735145 - 67.625905

Essendon 76 - 78 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.465149 - 0.534851RealScores: 75.595676 - 77.631043

Fremantle 68 - 74 Geelong Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.422992 - 0.577008RealScores: 67.969302 - 74.224613

Melbourne 89 - 70 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.696896 - 0.303104RealScores: 88.509256 - 69.638159

North Melbourne 79 - 93 West Coast
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.344449 - 0.655551RealScores: 78.662019 - 93.333376

Richmond 69 - 83 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.348549 - 0.651451RealScores: 68.814508 - 83.026224

Sydney Sydney 89 - 80 Collingwood
S.C.G. (NSW)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.601635 - 0.398365RealScores: 89.056123 - 80.245499

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	16 (16.12)	6	126.0
2	Melbourne	14 (13.81)	7	124.2
3	Greater Western Sydney	13 (13.36)	8	113.9
4	Carlton	13 (13.31)	8	110.8
5	Sydney	13 (12.54)	8	110.3
6	Port Adelaide	12 (12.29)	9	111.5
7	Gold Coast	12 (11.50)	9	105.3
8	Brisbane Lions	11 (11.35)	11	111.4
9	Western Bulldogs	11 (11.08)	10	110.6
10	Collingwood	11 (11.47)	10	105.8
11	Fremantle	11 (10.71)	11	99.8
12	Essendon	11 (11.07)	10	95.2
13	St Kilda	10 (9.82)	11	99.1
14	Adelaide	8 (8.21)	13	93.6
15	West Coast	8 (8.47)	14	83.7
16	Richmond	6 (6.35)	15	81.3
17	Hawthorn	6 (5.97)	15	78.4
18	North Melbourne	4 (3.57)	17	64.6

Round 23

Collingwood 77 - 74 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.537433 - 0.462567RealScores: 76.549447 - 74.330244

Essendon 82 - 88 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.427422 - 0.572578RealScores: 81.895079 - 87.621328

Gold Coast 69 - 73 Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.438170 - 0.561830RealScores: 68.506627 - 73.146759

Greater Western Sydney 87 - 66 Fremantle
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.719743 - 0.280257RealScores: 87.050088 - 65.829114

Hawthorn 79 - 78 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.529126 - 0.470874RealScores: 79.418424 - 78.009938

Port Adelaide 91 - 77 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.653733 - 0.346267RealScores: 91.362084 - 76.991296

St Kilda 68 - 78 Geelong Geelong
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.387880 - 0.612120RealScores: 67.939374 - 77.774165

West Coast 76 - 92 Carlton Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.339216 - 0.660784RealScores: 76.341211 - 91.504596

Western Bulldogs 113 - 67 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.897803 - 0.102197RealScores: 112.873508 - 66.834290

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	17 (16.71)	6	125.5
2	Melbourne	14 (14.35)	8	123.4
3	Greater Western Sydney	14 (14.05)	8	114.6
4	Carlton	14 (13.94)	8	111.2
5	Port Adelaide	13 (12.92)	9	111.8
6	Sydney	13 (13.09)	9	110.1
7	Western Bulldogs	12 (11.94)	10	112.9
8	Brisbane Lions	12 (11.83)	11	110.8
9	Collingwood	12 (11.98)	10	105.7
10	Gold Coast	12 (11.96)	10	104.8
11	Essendon	12 (11.52)	10	95.1
12	Fremantle	11 (11.02)	12	98.5
13	St Kilda	10 (10.23)	12	98.5
14	Adelaide	9 (8.58)	13	93.1
15	West Coast	9 (8.83)	14	83.7
16	Richmond	7 (6.85)	15	82.0
17	Hawthorn	6 (6.47)	16	79.3
18	North Melbourne	4 (3.71)	18	64.3

Round 24

Brisbane Lions 88 - 64 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.747367 - 0.252633RealScores: 87.878166 - 63.641489

Carlton Carlton 80 - 71 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.612212 - 0.387788RealScores: 80.366773 - 70.604175

Fremantle 76 - 75 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.530395 - 0.469605RealScores: 76.375925 - 74.909026

Geelong Geelong 104 - 59 West Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.895302 - 0.104698RealScores: 104.172237 - 58.594230

Hawthorn 92 - 71 North Melbourne
York Park (TAS)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.722558 - 0.277442RealScores: 92.487615 - 70.968798

Melbourne 82 - 70 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.634386 - 0.365614RealScores: 82.114895 - 69.969364

Richmond 74 - 83 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.394348 - 0.605652RealScores: 73.809666 - 82.879290

Sydney Sydney 94 - 73 Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.711568 - 0.288432RealScores: 93.524769 - 73.158012

Western Bulldogs 90 - 85 Greater Western Sydney
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.568650 - 0.431350RealScores: 89.789386 - 84.534004

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	18 (17.56)	6	127.3
2	Melbourne	15 (14.96)	8	123.1
3	Greater Western Sydney	15 (14.51)	8	113.6
4	Carlton	15 (14.53)	8	111.3
5	Sydney	14 (13.77)	9	110.8
6	Brisbane Lions	13 (12.55)	11	111.8
7	Port Adelaide	13 (13.42)	10	111.3
8	Gold Coast	13 (12.54)	10	105.1
9	Western Bulldogs	12 (12.49)	11	112.6
10	Collingwood	12 (12.37)	11	104.8
11	Fremantle	12 (11.53)	12	98.6
12	Essendon	12 (11.81)	11	94.1
13	St Kilda	11 (10.64)	12	98.0
14	Adelaide	9 (8.90)	14	92.4
15	West Coast	9 (8.97)	15	82.3
16	Richmond	7 (7.27)	16	82.3
17	Hawthorn	7 (7.16)	16	81.2
18	North Melbourne	4 (4.02)	19	64.8

FINALS: WEEK 1

Geelong Geelong 88 - 79 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

Melbourne 82 - 72 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)

Sydney Sydney 78 - 77 Brisbane Lions
S.C.G. (NSW)

Port Adelaide 91 - 82 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Greater Western Sydney 91 - 86 Sydney Sydney
Stadium Australia (NSW)

Carlton Carlton 92 - 81 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Geelong Geelong 84 - 78 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)

Melbourne 87 - 72 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

2024 AFL GRAND FINAL

Melbourne 77 - 71 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE7

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Melbourne	54.6	66.4	60.5
2	Geelong	56.8	62.2	59.5
3	Brisbane Lions	52.8	64.9	58.9
4	Greater Western Sydney	59.4	55.9	57.7
5	Carlton	56.5	57.2	56.8
6	Western Bulldogs	56.3	57.0	56.6
7	Sydney	56.9	55.5	56.2
8	Port Adelaide	57.5	54.9	56.2
9	Gold Coast	51.2	61.0	56.1
10	Collingwood	54.8	56.7	55.7
11	St Kilda	47.7	60.0	53.9
12	Fremantle	45.1	59.9	52.5
13	Adelaide	50.1	53.8	52.0
14	Essendon	50.8	52.8	51.8
15	Hawthorn	45.9	53.3	49.6
16	Richmond	48.9	49.1	49.0
17	West Coast	47.1	49.1	48.1
18	North Melbourne	44.7	42.3	43.5

Greater Western Sydney def Adelaide	1.7%
Brisbane Lions def Adelaide	1.6%
Adelaide def Brisbane Lions	1.6%
Adelaide def Greater Western Sydney	1.6%
Melbourne def Adelaide	1.6%
Geelong def Adelaide	1.6%
Geelong def Brisbane Lions	1.5%
Greater Western Sydney def Brisbane Lions	1.5%
Geelong def Greater Western Sydney	1.4%
Brisbane Lions def Greater Western Sydney	1.4%
Adelaide def Geelong	1.4%
Melbourne def Greater Western Sydney	1.4%
Brisbane Lions def Geelong	1.3%
Adelaide def Melbourne	1.3%
Melbourne def Brisbane Lions	1.3%
Melbourne def Geelong	1.3%
Greater Western Sydney def Melbourne	1.3%
Greater Western Sydney def Geelong	1.2%
Geelong def Melbourne	1.2%
Adelaide def Fremantle	1.2%

		Flagpole Height
1	Melbourne	60.1
2	Geelong	58.9
3	Brisbane Lions	57.9
4	Greater Western Sydney	57.2
5	Carlton	56.4
6	Sydney	55.5
7	Western Bulldogs	55.5
8	Port Adelaide	55.4
9	Gold Coast	55.0
10	Collingwood	54.5
11	Fremantle	52.5
12	St Kilda	51.7
13	Essendon	50.4
14	Adelaide	48.5
15	Hawthorn	44.7
16	Richmond	44.1
17	West Coast	42.9
18	North Melbourne	35.6