INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

• They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.

• They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.

• They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).

• They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

• Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.

• Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

• Scores, obviously.

• Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.

• Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.

• Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.

• Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.

• Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

• Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.

• Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

• Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.

• Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.

• Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.

• Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.

• The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

• Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.

• Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.

• Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

• Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.

• Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.

• Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Wed Jun 13 11:31:20 2018 (R27)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

In 2015, algorithm SQUIGGLE5 correctly tipped 152 games at an accuracy of 73.79%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 1

Carlton (78) lost to Richmond (105) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 27) Richmond by 4
Melbourne (115) defeated Gold Coast (89) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 26) Gold Coast by 15
Sydney (72) defeated Essendon (60) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 12) Sydney by 15
Brisbane Lions (74) lost to Collingwood (86) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 12) Brisbane Lions by 13
Western Bulldogs (97) defeated West Coast (87) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 10) West Coast by 19
St Kilda (78) lost to Greater Western Sydney (87) at Docklands (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 9) Greater Western Sydney by 26
Adelaide (140) defeated North Melbourne (63) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 77) Adelaide by 5
Fremantle (75) defeated Port Adelaide (68) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 7) Fremantle by 3
Hawthorn (123) defeated Geelong (61) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 62) Hawthorn by 24

Round 2

West Coast (131) defeated Carlton (62) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 69) West Coast by 18
Richmond (66) lost to Western Bulldogs (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 19) Richmond by 7
Greater Western Sydney (101) defeated Melbourne (56) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 45) Greater Western Sydney by 10
Collingwood (63) lost to Adelaide (90) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 27) Adelaide by 13
Gold Coast (76) lost to St Kilda (104) at Carrara (QLD) [St Kilda by 28) Gold Coast by 17
Port Adelaide (44) lost to Sydney (92) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Sydney by 48) Port Adelaide by 8
Geelong (60) lost to Fremantle (104) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Fremantle by 44) Fremantle by 4
Essendon (78) defeated Hawthorn (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 2) Hawthorn by 25
North Melbourne (133) defeated Brisbane Lions (51) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 82) North Melbourne by 33

Round 3

Collingwood (140) defeated St Kilda (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 74) Collingwood by 17
Carlton (84) lost to Essendon (105) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 21) Essendon by 21
Adelaide (80) defeated Melbourne (55) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 25) Adelaide by 59
Sydney (111) defeated Greater Western Sydney (90) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 21) Sydney by 46
North Melbourne (105) lost to Port Adelaide (113) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 8) Port Adelaide by 8
Brisbane Lions (58) lost to Richmond (137) at Gabba (QLD) [Richmond by 79) Richmond by 26
Hawthorn (127) defeated Western Bulldogs (57) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 70) Hawthorn by 43
Geelong (105) defeated Gold Coast (96) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 9) Geelong by 33
West Coast (81) lost to Fremantle (111) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 30) Fremantle by 12

Round 4

Richmond (51) lost to Melbourne (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 32) Richmond by 16
St Kilda (81) lost to Carlton (121) at Wellington (NZ) [Carlton by 40) Carlton by 8
Essendon (49) lost to Collingwood (69) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 20) Collingwood by 1
Greater Western Sydney (119) defeated Gold Coast (53) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 66) Greater Western Sydney by 26
Port Adelaide (99) defeated Hawthorn (91) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 8) Hawthorn by 11
Fremantle (74) defeated Sydney (60) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 14) Fremantle by 4
Brisbane Lions (65) lost to West Coast (118) at Gabba (QLD) [West Coast by 53) West Coast by 28
Geelong (67) lost to North Melbourne (83) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [North Melbourne by 16) North Melbourne by 2
Western Bulldogs (125) defeated Adelaide (68) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 57) Adelaide by 11

Round 5

Carlton (45) lost to Collingwood (120) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 75) Collingwood by 13
Richmond (76) lost to Geelong (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 9) Richmond by 21
Sydney (73) lost to Western Bulldogs (77) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 4) Sydney by 33
Gold Coast (118) defeated Brisbane Lions (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 64) Gold Coast by 12
North Melbourne (70) lost to Hawthorn (130) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 60) Hawthorn by 27
West Coast (120) defeated Greater Western Sydney (33) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 87) West Coast by 13
Melbourne (50) lost to Fremantle (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 68) Fremantle by 21
St Kilda (80) lost to Essendon (82) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 2) Essendon by 26
Adelaide (91) lost to Port Adelaide (115) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 24) Port Adelaide by 14

Round 6

Collingwood (59) lost to Geelong (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 41) Collingwood by 24
North Melbourne (109) defeated Richmond (74) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 35) North Melbourne by 2
Western Bulldogs (87) lost to St Kilda (94) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 7) Western Bulldogs by 32
Greater Western Sydney (108) defeated Hawthorn (98) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 10) Hawthorn by 23
Gold Coast (78) lost to Adelaide (119) at Carrara (QLD) [Adelaide by 41) Adelaide by 18
Melbourne (50) lost to Sydney (88) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 38) Sydney by 28
Fremantle (80) defeated Essendon (52) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 28) Fremantle by 32
Carlton (75) lost to Brisbane Lions (84) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 9) Carlton by 30
Port Adelaide (68) lost to West Coast (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [West Coast by 10) Port Adelaide by 11

Round 7

Essendon (82) lost to North Melbourne (93) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 11) North Melbourne by 7
Adelaide (119) defeated St Kilda (73) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 46) Adelaide by 45
Hawthorn (155) defeated Melbourne (50) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 105) Hawthorn by 43
Carlton (57) lost to Greater Western Sydney (135) at Docklands (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 78) Greater Western Sydney by 8
Sydney (120) defeated Geelong (77) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 43) Sydney by 39
West Coast (135) defeated Gold Coast (43) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 92) West Coast by 44
Western Bulldogs (88) lost to Fremantle (101) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 13) Fremantle by 3
Richmond (105) defeated Collingwood (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 5) Collingwood by 15
Brisbane Lions (102) defeated Port Adelaide (65) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 37) Port Adelaide by 35

Round 8

Geelong (140) defeated Carlton (63) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 77) Geelong by 25
St Kilda (78) lost to West Coast (131) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 53) West Coast by 35
Greater Western Sydney (108) defeated Adelaide (84) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 24) Greater Western Sydney by 20
Gold Coast (63) lost to Collingwood (132) at Carrara (QLD) [Collingwood by 69) Collingwood by 19
Hawthorn (69) lost to Sydney (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 4) Hawthorn by 18
Fremantle (115) defeated North Melbourne (42) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 73) Fremantle by 38
Essendon (136) defeated Brisbane Lions (78) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 58) Essendon by 46
Melbourne (103) defeated Western Bulldogs (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 39) Western Bulldogs by 21
Port Adelaide (43) lost to Richmond (76) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Richmond by 33) Port Adelaide by 14

Round 9

Sydney (122) defeated Carlton (62) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 60) Sydney by 70
Hawthorn (93) defeated Gold Coast (40) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 53) Hawthorn by 73
Melbourne (54) lost to Port Adelaide (115) at Traeger Park (NT) [Port Adelaide by 61) Port Adelaide by 6
Western Bulldogs (113) defeated Greater Western Sydney (68) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 45) Greater Western Sydney by 2
Richmond (72) defeated Essendon (59) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 13) Richmond by 2
Adelaide (57) lost to Fremantle (68) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Fremantle by 11) Fremantle by 8
Brisbane Lions (86) lost to St Kilda (108) at Gabba (QLD) [St Kilda by 22) Brisbane Lions by 0
Collingwood (112) defeated North Melbourne (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 17) Collingwood by 10
West Coast (120) defeated Geelong (64) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 56) West Coast by 27

Round 10

Fremantle (70) lost to Richmond (97) at Subiaco (WA) [Richmond by 27) Fremantle by 26
Carlton (90) lost to Adelaide (99) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 9) Adelaide by 35
Gold Coast (41) lost to Sydney (93) at Carrara (QLD) [Sydney by 52) Sydney by 43
Essendon (53) lost to Geelong (122) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 69) Geelong by 2
Port Adelaide (100) defeated Western Bulldogs (62) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 38) Port Adelaide by 14
Greater Western Sydney (97) defeated Brisbane Lions (67) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 30) Greater Western Sydney by 58
North Melbourne (85) defeated West Coast (75) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 10) West Coast by 26
St Kilda (69) lost to Hawthorn (132) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 63) Hawthorn by 55
Melbourne (85) lost to Collingwood (110) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 25) Collingwood by 20

Round 11

Port Adelaide (69) lost to Geelong (92) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 23) Port Adelaide by 15
Gold Coast (46) lost to Fremantle (53) at Carrara (QLD) [Fremantle by 7) Fremantle by 24
West Coast (96) defeated Essendon (46) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 50) West Coast by 42
North Melbourne (75) lost to Sydney (91) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 16) Sydney by 16
Collingwood (119) defeated Greater Western Sydney (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 42) Collingwood by 10
St Kilda (85) defeated Melbourne (83) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 2) Melbourne by 2

Round 12

Adelaide (85) lost to Hawthorn (114) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Hawthorn by 29) Hawthorn by 17
Richmond (70) lost to West Coast (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [West Coast by 20) West Coast by 6
Carlton (110) defeated Port Adelaide (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 4) Port Adelaide by 18
Greater Western Sydney (61) lost to North Melbourne (117) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [North Melbourne by 56) North Melbourne by 8
Western Bulldogs (146) defeated Brisbane Lions (74) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 72) Western Bulldogs by 44
Geelong (89) lost to Melbourne (113) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Melbourne by 24) Geelong by 28

Round 13

Fremantle (80) defeated Collingwood (73) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 7) Fremantle by 25
Sydney (77) lost to Richmond (95) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Richmond by 18) Sydney by 24
Hawthorn (114) defeated Essendon (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 38) Hawthorn by 44
Brisbane Lions (69) lost to Adelaide (82) at Gabba (QLD) [Adelaide by 13) Adelaide by 31
St Kilda (56) lost to Western Bulldogs (62) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 6) Western Bulldogs by 28
Carlton (103) defeated Gold Coast (69) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 34) Gold Coast by 1

Round 14

Sydney (94) defeated Port Adelaide (84) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 10) Sydney by 22
Collingwood (91) lost to Hawthorn (101) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 10) Hawthorn by 28
Richmond (78) defeated Greater Western Sydney (69) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 9) Richmond by 22
Gold Coast (125) defeated North Melbourne (70) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 55) North Melbourne by 22
Western Bulldogs (64) defeated Carlton (53) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 11) Western Bulldogs by 35
Melbourne (60) lost to West Coast (114) at Marrara Oval (NT) [West Coast by 54) West Coast by 34
Essendon (52) lost to St Kilda (162) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 110) Essendon by 10
Fremantle (84) defeated Brisbane Lions (48) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 36) Fremantle by 65

Round 15

Port Adelaide (66) defeated Collingwood (63) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 3) Port Adelaide by 6
Richmond (71) defeated Carlton (41) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 30) Richmond by 23
Essendon (69) defeated Melbourne (60) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 9) Melbourne by 8
Western Bulldogs (95) defeated Gold Coast (73) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 22) Western Bulldogs by 10
North Melbourne (120) defeated Geelong (79) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 41) Geelong by 11
West Coast (147) defeated Adelaide (91) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 56) West Coast by 39
Greater Western Sydney (84) defeated St Kilda (49) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 35) Greater Western Sydney by 17
Hawthorn (115) defeated Fremantle (43) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 72) Hawthorn by 15
Brisbane Lions (49) lost to Sydney (70) at Gabba (QLD) [Sydney by 21) Sydney by 34

Round 16

North Melbourne (93) defeated Essendon (68) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 25) North Melbourne by 16
Geelong (72) defeated Western Bulldogs (64) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 8) Geelong by 6
Gold Coast (79) lost to Greater Western Sydney (94) at Carrara (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 15) Greater Western Sydney by 16
Collingwood (56) lost to West Coast (87) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 31) West Coast by 8
Sydney (57) lost to Hawthorn (146) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Hawthorn by 89) Hawthorn by 3
Fremantle (95) defeated Carlton (53) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 42) Fremantle by 39
Melbourne (60) defeated Brisbane Lions (36) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 24) Melbourne by 16
Port Adelaide (113) lost to Adelaide (116) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 3) Adelaide by 1
St Kilda (73) lost to Richmond (89) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 16) Richmond by 15

Round 17

Carlton (35) lost to Hawthorn (173) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 138) Hawthorn by 64
Greater Western Sydney (42) lost to Geelong (69) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Geelong by 27) Greater Western Sydney by 7
Adelaide (125) defeated Gold Coast (80) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 45) Adelaide by 46
Richmond (78) lost to Fremantle (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 4) Richmond by 7
Essendon (116) lost to Port Adelaide (129) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 13) Port Adelaide by 12
Brisbane Lions (38) lost to North Melbourne (110) at Gabba (QLD) [North Melbourne by 72) North Melbourne by 29
Western Bulldogs (104) defeated Collingwood (86) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 18) Collingwood by 3
Melbourne (46) lost to St Kilda (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 37) St Kilda by 7
West Coast (103) defeated Sydney (51) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 52) West Coast by 30

Round 18

Hawthorn (53) lost to Richmond (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 18) Hawthorn by 33
Geelong (113) defeated Brisbane Lions (57) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 56) Geelong by 43
Collingwood (54) lost to Melbourne (91) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 37) Collingwood by 22
Sydney (117) defeated Adelaide (65) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 52) Sydney by 27
Carlton (54) lost to North Melbourne (118) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 64) North Melbourne by 28
Gold Coast (83) drew with West Coast (83) at Carrara (QLD) [DRAW by 0) West Coast by 51
Port Adelaide (112) defeated St Kilda (49) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 63) Port Adelaide by 21
Essendon (40) lost to Western Bulldogs (127) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 87) Western Bulldogs by 14
Fremantle (84) defeated Greater Western Sydney (63) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 21) Fremantle by 29

Round 19

Adelaide (88) defeated Richmond (52) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 36) Richmond by 5
Collingwood (105) defeated Carlton (87) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 18) Collingwood by 33
Western Bulldogs (128) defeated Port Adelaide (64) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 64) Western Bulldogs by 11
Brisbane Lions (100) lost to Gold Coast (114) at Gabba (QLD) [Gold Coast by 14) Gold Coast by 15
Geelong (95) defeated Sydney (63) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 32) Geelong by 14
West Coast (74) lost to Hawthorn (88) at Subiaco (WA) [Hawthorn by 14) West Coast by 3
Melbourne (92) lost to North Melbourne (127) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 35) North Melbourne by 16
Greater Western Sydney (93) defeated Essendon (61) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 32) Greater Western Sydney by 28
St Kilda (59) lost to Fremantle (96) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 37) Fremantle by 9

Round 20

Sydney (87) defeated Collingwood (76) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 11) Sydney by 25
Essendon (59) lost to Adelaide (171) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 112) Adelaide by 16
North Melbourne (120) defeated St Kilda (83) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 37) North Melbourne by 22
Port Adelaide (111) defeated Greater Western Sydney (90) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 21) Port Adelaide by 26
Brisbane Lions (131) defeated Carlton (67) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 64) Brisbane Lions by 8
Geelong (85) lost to Hawthorn (121) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 36) Hawthorn by 30
Richmond (138) defeated Gold Coast (55) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 83) Richmond by 51
Western Bulldogs (153) defeated Melbourne (55) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 98) Western Bulldogs by 32
Fremantle (80) lost to West Coast (104) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 24) Fremantle by 1

Round 21

Hawthorn (86) lost to Port Adelaide (108) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 22) Hawthorn by 47
Collingwood (56) lost to Richmond (147) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 91) Richmond by 11
Greater Western Sydney (44) lost to Sydney (133) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Sydney by 89) Sydney by 6
Gold Coast (97) defeated Essendon (95) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 2) Gold Coast by 3
St Kilda (97) drew with Geelong (97) at Docklands (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Geelong by 10
Adelaide (131) defeated Brisbane Lions (44) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 87) Adelaide by 56
North Melbourne (94) defeated Fremantle (83) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 11) North Melbourne by 6
Carlton (78) defeated Melbourne (55) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 23) Melbourne by 8
West Coast (162) defeated Western Bulldogs (85) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 77) West Coast by 27

Round 22

Geelong (62) lost to Collingwood (110) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 48) Geelong by 5
Greater Western Sydney (132) defeated Carlton (51) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 81) Greater Western Sydney by 29
Hawthorn (134) defeated Brisbane Lions (62) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 72) Hawthorn by 63
North Melbourne (73) lost to Western Bulldogs (96) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 23) Western Bulldogs by 13
Essendon (47) lost to Richmond (74) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 27) Richmond by 29
Gold Coast (51) lost to Port Adelaide (88) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 37) Port Adelaide by 20
Adelaide (126) defeated West Coast (69) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 57) West Coast by 5
St Kilda (38) lost to Sydney (135) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 97) Sydney by 10
Fremantle (108) defeated Melbourne (54) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 54) Fremantle by 37

Round 23

Richmond (108) defeated North Melbourne (67) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 41) Richmond by 34
Geelong (119) defeated Adelaide (80) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 39) Geelong by 1
Brisbane Lions (130) defeated Western Bulldogs (122) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 8) Western Bulldogs by 20
Port Adelaide (122) defeated Fremantle (53) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 69) Port Adelaide by 40
Hawthorn (113) defeated Carlton (56) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 57) Hawthorn by 68
Sydney (127) defeated Gold Coast (64) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 63) Sydney by 56
West Coast (125) defeated St Kilda (30) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 95) West Coast by 53
Melbourne (103) defeated Greater Western Sydney (77) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 26) Greater Western Sydney by 1
Collingwood (92) lost to Essendon (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 3) Collingwood by 28

Qualifying Final

West Coast (96) defeated Hawthorn (64) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 32) Hawthorn by 2
Fremantle (69) defeated Sydney (60) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 9) Fremantle by 42
Western Bulldogs (102) lost to Adelaide (109) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 7) Western Bulldogs by 10
Richmond (88) lost to North Melbourne (105) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 17) North Melbourne by 10

Semi Final

Hawthorn (135) defeated Adelaide (61) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 74) Hawthorn by 18
Sydney (51) lost to North Melbourne (77) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [North Melbourne by 26) Sydney by 27

Preliminary Final

Fremantle (67) lost to Hawthorn (94) at Subiaco (WA) [Hawthorn by 27) Hawthorn by 13
West Coast (80) defeated North Melbourne (55) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 25) West Coast by 32

Grand Final

Hawthorn (107) defeated West Coast (61) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 46) Hawthorn by 9

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SKILL

90%

LUCK

10%

Open Door

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Hawthorn	67.0	68.0	67.5
2	West Coast	65.3	68.8	67.1
3	Sydney	57.5	70.2	63.8
4	North Melbourne	62.4	61.2	61.8
5	Richmond	55.6	64.8	60.2
6	Adelaide	64.5	55.8	60.1
7	Western Bulldogs	60.3	58.2	59.2
8	Port Adelaide	58.6	59.5	59.0
9	Geelong	56.5	59.1	57.8
10	Fremantle	50.6	64.8	57.7
11	Collingwood	55.1	55.3	55.2
12	St Kilda	50.9	52.5	51.7
13	Greater Western Sydney	50.8	52.1	51.5
14	Melbourne	45.7	53.1	49.4
15	Essendon	47.0	51.4	49.2
16	Brisbane Lions	46.0	48.1	47.0
17	Gold Coast	46.9	46.3	46.6
18	Carlton	44.6	46.9	45.8