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Squiggle

INFO

What Squiggles areHow to play through a seasonPredictionFAQThe ModelFlagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move up; when they score less, they move move down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Wed Jun 13 11:31:53 2018 (R27)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

Minor PremierTop 4Top 8Bottom 4Spoon

MODE LADDER

LikelihoodIf not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

In 2014, algorithm SQUIGGLE5 correctly tipped 150 games at an accuracy of 72.46%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 1


Collingwood (46) lost to Fremantle (116) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 70) Fremantle by 3
Greater Western Sydney (99) defeated Sydney (67) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 32) Sydney by 35
Gold Coast (87) defeated Richmond (69) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 18) Richmond by 14
Carlton (87) lost to Port Adelaide (120) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 33) Carlton by 6
Geelong (119) defeated Adelaide (81) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 38) Geelong by 21
North Melbourne (60) lost to Essendon (99) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 39) North Melbourne by 26
Hawthorn (139) defeated Brisbane Lions (91) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 48) Hawthorn by 28
St Kilda (68) defeated Melbourne (51) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 17) St Kilda by 21
West Coast (134) defeated Western Bulldogs (69) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 65) West Coast by 28

Round 2


Richmond (98) defeated Carlton (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 12) Richmond by 13
Essendon (86) lost to Hawthorn (90) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 4) Hawthorn by 2
St Kilda (95) defeated Greater Western Sydney (88) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 7) St Kilda by 33
Port Adelaide (127) defeated Adelaide (73) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 54) Adelaide by 2
Fremantle (87) defeated Gold Coast (39) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 48) Fremantle by 42
Sydney (69) lost to Collingwood (89) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Collingwood by 20) Sydney by 3
Brisbane Lions (68) lost to Geelong (93) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 25) Geelong by 28
Melbourne (30) lost to West Coast (123) at M.C.G. (VIC) [West Coast by 93) West Coast by 32
Western Bulldogs (54) lost to North Melbourne (83) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 29) North Melbourne by 18

Round 3


Hawthorn (137) defeated Fremantle (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 58) Fremantle by 0
Western Bulldogs (100) defeated Richmond (98) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 2) Richmond by 23
Adelaide (71) lost to Sydney (134) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Sydney by 63) Adelaide by 23
Gold Coast (114) defeated Brisbane Lions (61) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 53) Gold Coast by 4
West Coast (83) defeated St Kilda (58) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 25) West Coast by 44
Collingwood (76) lost to Geelong (87) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 11) Geelong by 11
Greater Western Sydney (79) defeated Melbourne (47) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 32) Greater Western Sydney by 35
North Melbourne (97) defeated Port Adelaide (90) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 7) Port Adelaide by 6
Essendon (138) defeated Carlton (57) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 81) Essendon by 17

Round 4


Richmond (72) lost to Collingwood (110) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 38) Collingwood by 8
Carlton (58) lost to Melbourne (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 23) Carlton by 41
Port Adelaide (159) defeated Brisbane Lions (46) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 113) Port Adelaide by 53
Greater Western Sydney (83) lost to Western Bulldogs (110) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 27) Greater Western Sydney by 3
Geelong (107) defeated West Coast (32) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 75) Geelong by 37
Gold Coast (49) lost to Hawthorn (148) at Carrara (QLD) [Hawthorn by 99) Hawthorn by 20
Sydney (48) lost to North Melbourne (91) at S.C.G. (NSW) [North Melbourne by 43) North Melbourne by 1
St Kilda (50) lost to Adelaide (136) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 86) Adelaide by 7
Fremantle (113) defeated Essendon (60) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 53) Fremantle by 13

Round 5


Brisbane Lions (63) lost to Richmond (106) at Gabba (QLD) [Richmond by 43) Richmond by 14
Collingwood (93) defeated North Melbourne (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 35) Collingwood by 1
Sydney (92) defeated Fremantle (75) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 17) Fremantle by 26
West Coast (56) lost to Port Adelaide (70) at Subiaco (WA) [Port Adelaide by 14) West Coast by 0
Essendon (65) lost to St Kilda (81) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 16) Essendon by 53
Adelaide (137) defeated Greater Western Sydney (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 65) Adelaide by 45
Melbourne (78) lost to Gold Coast (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Gold Coast by 8) Gold Coast by 25
Western Bulldogs (91) lost to Carlton (119) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 28) Carlton by 10
Geelong (106) defeated Hawthorn (87) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 19) Hawthorn by 12

Round 6


Collingwood (83) defeated Essendon (60) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 23) Collingwood by 7
St Kilda (79) lost to Brisbane Lions (82) at Wellington (NZ) [Brisbane Lions by 3) St Kilda by 7
Fremantle (61) lost to North Melbourne (74) at Subiaco (WA) [North Melbourne by 13) Fremantle by 23
Gold Coast (134) defeated Greater Western Sydney (94) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 40) Gold Coast by 25
Carlton (92) defeated West Coast (89) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 3) West Coast by 5
Melbourne (38) lost to Sydney (69) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 31) Sydney by 36
Western Bulldogs (83) lost to Adelaide (92) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 9) Adelaide by 11
Richmond (52) lost to Hawthorn (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 66) Hawthorn by 37
Port Adelaide (107) defeated Geelong (67) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 40) Port Adelaide by 4

Round 7


Carlton (70) lost to Collingwood (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 34) Collingwood by 31
Hawthorn (175) defeated St Kilda (30) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 145) Hawthorn by 55
Greater Western Sydney (97) lost to Port Adelaide (132) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Port Adelaide by 35) Port Adelaide by 38
Adelaide (67) lost to Melbourne (70) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 3) Adelaide by 60
Essendon (73) defeated Western Bulldogs (65) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 8) Essendon by 34
Brisbane Lions (44) lost to Sydney (123) at Gabba (QLD) [Sydney by 79) Sydney by 14
North Melbourne (77) lost to Gold Coast (120) at Docklands (VIC) [Gold Coast by 43) North Melbourne by 29
Geelong (81) defeated Richmond (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 5) Geelong by 24
West Coast (54) lost to Fremantle (73) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 19) Fremantle by 6

Round 8


Sydney (107) defeated Hawthorn (88) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 19) Hawthorn by 12
Port Adelaide (94) defeated Fremantle (76) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 18) Port Adelaide by 18
Brisbane Lions (57) lost to Essendon (65) at Gabba (QLD) [Essendon by 8) Essendon by 21
Melbourne (83) lost to Western Bulldogs (99) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 16) Western Bulldogs by 18
West Coast (188) defeated Greater Western Sydney (77) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 111) West Coast by 48
St Kilda (69) lost to Carlton (101) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 32) Carlton by 17

Round 9


Adelaide (76) defeated Collingwood (55) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 21) Collingwood by 8
Essendon (64) lost to Sydney (114) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 50) Essendon by 8
Richmond (74) lost to Melbourne (91) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 17) Richmond by 35
North Melbourne (125) defeated Brisbane Lions (38) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 87) North Melbourne by 54
Fremantle (96) defeated Geelong (64) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 32) Geelong by 4
St Kilda (87) lost to Gold Coast (125) at Docklands (VIC) [Gold Coast by 38) Gold Coast by 14

Round 10


Geelong (111) defeated North Melbourne (91) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 20) Geelong by 19
Greater Western Sydney (41) lost to Richmond (154) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Richmond by 113) Richmond by 7
Collingwood (109) defeated West Coast (101) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 8) Collingwood by 11
Port Adelaide (100) defeated Hawthorn (86) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 14) Port Adelaide by 4
Gold Coast (119) defeated Western Bulldogs (74) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 45) Gold Coast by 26
Carlton (81) defeated Adelaide (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 5) Adelaide by 12

Round 11


Sydney (148) defeated Geelong (38) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 110) Sydney by 3
St Kilda (54) lost to Collingwood (140) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 86) Collingwood by 34
Melbourne (75) lost to Port Adelaide (95) at Traeger Park (NT) [Port Adelaide by 20) Port Adelaide by 55
Brisbane Lions (98) defeated Carlton (91) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 7) Carlton by 6
Essendon (104) defeated Richmond (54) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 50) Essendon by 1
Adelaide (109) defeated Gold Coast (77) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 32) Adelaide by 21
Western Bulldogs (51) lost to Fremantle (89) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 38) Fremantle by 35
Hawthorn (94) defeated Greater Western Sydney (87) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 7) Hawthorn by 88
West Coast (44) lost to North Melbourne (82) at Subiaco (WA) [North Melbourne by 38) West Coast by 6

Round 12


Geelong (107) defeated Carlton (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 5) Geelong by 35
Hawthorn (123) defeated West Coast (79) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 44) Hawthorn by 38
Port Adelaide (129) defeated St Kilda (59) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 70) Port Adelaide by 63
Greater Western Sydney (66) lost to Essendon (81) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Essendon by 15) Essendon by 22
Western Bulldogs (87) lost to Brisbane Lions (95) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 8) Western Bulldogs by 30
Gold Coast (74) lost to Sydney (109) at Carrara (QLD) [Sydney by 35) Sydney by 14
Fremantle (90) defeated Adelaide (50) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 40) Fremantle by 30
North Melbourne (116) defeated Richmond (88) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 28) North Melbourne by 21
Melbourne (28) lost to Collingwood (61) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 33) Collingwood by 42

Round 13


Carlton (90) lost to Hawthorn (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 28) Hawthorn by 56
Richmond (85) lost to Fremantle (105) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 20) Fremantle by 6
Sydney (98) defeated Port Adelaide (94) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 4) Sydney by 1
West Coast (103) defeated Gold Coast (100) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 3) West Coast by 13
Adelaide (109) defeated North Melbourne (73) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 36) North Melbourne by 5
Brisbane Lions (80) lost to Greater Western Sydney (125) at Gabba (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 45) Greater Western Sydney by 4
Geelong (133) defeated St Kilda (37) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 96) Geelong by 51
Collingwood (98) lost to Western Bulldogs (106) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 8) Collingwood by 29
Essendon (77) lost to Melbourne (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 1) Essendon by 29

Round 14


Richmond (51) lost to Sydney (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 11) Sydney by 12
Port Adelaide (128) defeated Western Bulldogs (56) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 72) Port Adelaide by 51
Hawthorn (115) defeated Collingwood (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 29) Hawthorn by 17
Gold Coast (118) defeated Geelong (78) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 40) Geelong by 21
Fremantle (105) defeated Brisbane Lions (22) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 83) Fremantle by 70
Essendon (101) defeated Adelaide (92) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 9) Essendon by 7
Greater Western Sydney (100) defeated Carlton (92) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 8) Carlton by 9
St Kilda (70) lost to West Coast (103) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 33) West Coast by 32
Melbourne (66) lost to North Melbourne (107) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 41) North Melbourne by 39

Round 15


Geelong (89) defeated Essendon (80) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 9) Geelong by 6
Hawthorn (116) defeated Gold Coast (63) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 53) Hawthorn by 44
St Kilda (73) lost to Richmond (117) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 44) Richmond by 33
Fremantle (88) defeated West Coast (81) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 7) Fremantle by 13
Brisbane Lions (70) defeated North Melbourne (66) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 4) North Melbourne by 36
Sydney (106) defeated Greater Western Sydney (60) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 46) Sydney by 49
Western Bulldogs (91) defeated Melbourne (85) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 6) Western Bulldogs by 8
Adelaide (99) defeated Port Adelaide (76) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 23) Port Adelaide by 28
Collingwood (91) defeated Carlton (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 15) Collingwood by 30

Round 16


North Melbourne (108) defeated Hawthorn (88) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 20) Hawthorn by 11
Richmond (79) defeated Brisbane Lions (54) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 25) Richmond by 46
Greater Western Sydney (72) lost to Adelaide (140) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Adelaide by 68) Adelaide by 19
Gold Coast (80) defeated Collingwood (75) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 5) Gold Coast by 5
Port Adelaide (60) lost to Essendon (62) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Essendon by 2) Port Adelaide by 29
Melbourne (34) lost to Fremantle (97) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Fremantle by 63) Fremantle by 35
Carlton (151) defeated St Kilda (66) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 85) Carlton by 24
West Coast (51) lost to Sydney (79) at Subiaco (WA) [Sydney by 28) Sydney by 6
Geelong (69) defeated Western Bulldogs (56) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 13) Geelong by 38

Round 17


Adelaide (92) lost to Hawthorn (104) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Hawthorn by 12) Hawthorn by 11
Melbourne (36) lost to Geelong (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 66) Geelong by 41
North Melbourne (92) defeated St Kilda (33) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 59) North Melbourne by 56
Western Bulldogs (94) defeated Gold Coast (66) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 28) Gold Coast by 27
Sydney (122) defeated Carlton (51) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 71) Sydney by 52
Brisbane Lions (64) lost to West Coast (76) at Gabba (QLD) [West Coast by 12) West Coast by 13
Richmond (126) defeated Port Adelaide (106) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 20) Port Adelaide by 4
Essendon (103) defeated Collingwood (39) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 64) Collingwood by 9
Fremantle (136) defeated Greater Western Sydney (60) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 76) Fremantle by 66

Round 18


Carlton (109) defeated North Melbourne (86) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 23) North Melbourne by 31
St Kilda (118) defeated Fremantle (60) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 58) Fremantle by 40
Greater Western Sydney (87) lost to Geelong (94) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Geelong by 7) Geelong by 26
Port Adelaide (72) defeated Melbourne (69) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 3) Port Adelaide by 65
Western Bulldogs (94) lost to Essendon (101) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 7) Essendon by 18
West Coast (42) lost to Richmond (59) at Subiaco (WA) [Richmond by 17) West Coast by 26
Brisbane Lions (110) defeated Gold Coast (56) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 54) Gold Coast by 21
Hawthorn (104) defeated Sydney (94) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 10) Hawthorn by 11
Collingwood (82) lost to Adelaide (98) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 16) Collingwood by 6

Round 19


Fremantle (83) defeated Carlton (78) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 5) Fremantle by 46
Sydney (79) defeated Essendon (57) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 22) Sydney by 24
Adelaide (105) lost to West Coast (136) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [West Coast by 31) Adelaide by 20
Richmond (89) defeated Greater Western Sydney (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 27) Richmond by 42
North Melbourne (79) lost to Geelong (111) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 32) Geelong by 3
Gold Coast (117) defeated St Kilda (64) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 53) Gold Coast by 24
Melbourne (51) lost to Brisbane Lions (74) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 23) Melbourne by 2
Hawthorn (107) defeated Western Bulldogs (45) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 62) Hawthorn by 48
Collingwood (76) defeated Port Adelaide (70) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 6) Port Adelaide by 0

Round 20


Richmond (95) defeated Essendon (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 18) Richmond by 1
Greater Western Sydney (51) lost to North Melbourne (126) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [North Melbourne by 75) North Melbourne by 19
Carlton (97) defeated Gold Coast (58) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 39) Carlton by 11
Hawthorn (115) defeated Melbourne (65) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 50) Hawthorn by 63
Port Adelaide (58) lost to Sydney (84) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Sydney by 26) Sydney by 9
Geelong (81) defeated Fremantle (79) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 2) Geelong by 20
Brisbane Lions (63) lost to Adelaide (168) at Gabba (QLD) [Adelaide by 105) Adelaide by 18
St Kilda (99) lost to Western Bulldogs (122) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 23) Western Bulldogs by 17
West Coast (126) defeated Collingwood (66) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 60) West Coast by 13

Round 21


Carlton (76) lost to Geelong (82) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 6) Geelong by 3
Sydney (127) defeated St Kilda (56) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 71) Sydney by 60
Gold Coast (47) lost to Port Adelaide (56) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 9) Port Adelaide by 16
Essendon (77) defeated West Coast (74) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 3) Essendon by 19
Adelaide (69) lost to Richmond (79) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Richmond by 10) Adelaide by 14
Collingwood (56) lost to Brisbane Lions (123) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 67) Collingwood by 30
North Melbourne (111) defeated Western Bulldogs (61) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 50) North Melbourne by 30
Melbourne (34) lost to Greater Western Sydney (98) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 64) Melbourne by 4
Fremantle (110) defeated Hawthorn (91) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 19) Hawthorn by 3

Round 22


Port Adelaide (140) defeated Carlton (37) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 103) Port Adelaide by 38
North Melbourne (101) defeated Adelaide (94) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 7) North Melbourne by 4
Essendon (108) defeated Gold Coast (89) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 19) Essendon by 27
Greater Western Sydney (67) lost to Collingwood (75) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Collingwood by 8) Collingwood by 6
West Coast (119) defeated Melbourne (53) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 66) West Coast by 43
Hawthorn (94) defeated Geelong (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 23) Hawthorn by 13
Brisbane Lions (48) lost to Fremantle (106) at Gabba (QLD) [Fremantle by 58) Fremantle by 17
Western Bulldogs (67) lost to Sydney (130) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 63) Sydney by 26
Richmond (98) defeated St Kilda (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 26) Richmond by 39

Round 23


Collingwood (56) lost to Hawthorn (121) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 65) Hawthorn by 28
Carlton (90) drew with Essendon (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Essendon by 14
Fremantle (105) defeated Port Adelaide (97) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 8) Fremantle by 14
Sydney (65) lost to Richmond (68) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Richmond by 3) Sydney by 19
Geelong (143) defeated Brisbane Lions (81) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 62) Geelong by 51
North Melbourne (123) defeated Melbourne (93) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 30) North Melbourne by 43
Gold Coast (99) lost to West Coast (151) at Carrara (QLD) [West Coast by 52) West Coast by 9
Adelaide (141) defeated St Kilda (62) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 79) Adelaide by 48
Western Bulldogs (109) lost to Greater Western Sydney (115) at Docklands (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 6) Western Bulldogs by 19

Qualifying Final


Hawthorn (104) defeated Geelong (68) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 36) Hawthorn by 18
Sydney (93) defeated Fremantle (69) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 24) Sydney by 42
North Melbourne (93) defeated Essendon (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 12) North Melbourne by 7
Port Adelaide (132) defeated Richmond (75) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 57) Port Adelaide by 25

Semi Final


Geelong (92) lost to North Melbourne (98) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 6) North Melbourne by 12
Fremantle (83) lost to Port Adelaide (105) at Subiaco (WA) [Port Adelaide by 22) Fremantle by 7

Preliminary Final


Sydney (136) defeated North Melbourne (65) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 71) Sydney by 26
Hawthorn (97) defeated Port Adelaide (94) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 3) Hawthorn by 16

Grand Final


Hawthorn (137) defeated Sydney (74) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 63) Hawthorn by 11

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

90%
10%

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

Flagpole Height
1Hawthorn67.7
2Port Adelaide0.0
3Sydney0.0
4Fremantle0.0
5Geelong0.0
6North Melbourne0.0
7West Coast0.0
8Essendon0.0
9Adelaide0.0
10Richmond0.0
11Carlton0.0
12Collingwood0.0
13Western Bulldogs0.0
14Gold Coast0.0
15Greater Western Sydney0.0
16Brisbane Lions0.0
17St Kilda0.0
18Melbourne0.0

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

AttackDefenceCombined
1Hawthorn70.165.467.7
2Port Adelaide67.563.765.6
3Sydney64.166.565.3
4Fremantle58.663.360.9
5Geelong59.959.359.6
6North Melbourne60.357.658.9
7West Coast57.559.958.7
8Essendon54.562.058.3
9Adelaide62.553.458.0
10Richmond54.461.658.0
11Carlton55.251.253.2
12Collingwood49.355.752.5
13Western Bulldogs52.750.551.6
14Gold Coast52.849.951.4
15Greater Western Sydney51.347.349.3
16Brisbane Lions45.650.147.9
17St Kilda46.048.047.0
18Melbourne40.151.045.6
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