INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

• They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.

• They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.

• They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).

• They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

• Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.

• Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

• Scores, obviously.

• Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.

• Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.

• Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.

• Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.

• Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

• Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.

• Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

• Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.

• Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.

• Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.

• Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.

• The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

• Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.

• Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.

• Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

• Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.

• Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.

• Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Wed Jun 13 11:54:09 2018 (R27)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

In 2012, algorithm SQUIGGLE5 correctly tipped 153 games at an accuracy of 73.91%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 1

Greater Western Sydney (37) lost to Sydney (100) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 63) Sydney by 30
Richmond (81) lost to Carlton (125) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 44) Carlton by 36
Hawthorn (137) defeated Collingwood (115) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 22) Collingwood by 11
Melbourne (78) lost to Brisbane Lions (119) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 41) Melbourne by 7
Gold Coast (68) lost to Adelaide (137) at Carrara (QLD) [Adelaide by 69) Adelaide by 1
Fremantle (105) defeated Geelong (101) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 4) Geelong by 50
North Melbourne (102) lost to Essendon (104) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 2) North Melbourne by 7
Western Bulldogs (87) lost to West Coast (136) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 49) West Coast by 17
Port Adelaide (89) defeated St Kilda (85) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 4) St Kilda by 37

Round 2

Brisbane Lions (63) lost to Carlton (154) at Gabba (QLD) [Carlton by 91) Carlton by 22
Essendon (111) defeated Port Adelaide (86) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 25) Essendon by 33
Sydney (94) defeated Fremantle (81) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 13) Sydney by 38
West Coast (166) defeated Melbourne (58) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 108) West Coast by 60
Adelaide (82) defeated Western Bulldogs (64) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 18) Adelaide by 9
Collingwood (85) defeated Richmond (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 21) Collingwood by 59
North Melbourne (183) defeated Greater Western Sydney (54) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 129) North Melbourne by 10
St Kilda (139) defeated Gold Coast (47) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 92) St Kilda by 44
Geelong (92) defeated Hawthorn (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 2) Hawthorn by 7

Round 3

Carlton (122) defeated Collingwood (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 60) Collingwood by 6
Richmond (133) defeated Melbourne (74) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 59) Richmond by 31
Port Adelaide (83) lost to Sydney (105) at Football Park (SA) [Sydney by 22) Sydney by 32
Fremantle (64) defeated Brisbane Lions (35) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 29) Fremantle by 37
Gold Coast (88) lost to Essendon (105) at Carrara (QLD) [Essendon by 17) Essendon by 39
Western Bulldogs (40) lost to St Kilda (103) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 63) St Kilda by 14
Greater Western Sydney (69) lost to West Coast (150) at Blacktown (NSW) [West Coast by 81) West Coast by 38
Hawthorn (140) defeated Adelaide (84) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 56) Hawthorn by 53
North Melbourne (131) defeated Geelong (114) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 17) Geelong by 13

Round 4

St Kilda (79) lost to Fremantle (92) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 13) St Kilda by 14
Carlton (79) lost to Essendon (109) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 30) Carlton by 51
Collingwood (97) defeated Port Adelaide (73) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 24) Collingwood by 47
Adelaide (96) defeated Greater Western Sydney (50) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 46) Adelaide by 43
West Coast (51) defeated Hawthorn (46) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 5) West Coast by 11
Brisbane Lions (111) defeated Gold Coast (46) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 65) Brisbane Lions by 36
Geelong (75) defeated Richmond (65) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 10) Geelong by 47
Sydney (113) defeated North Melbourne (77) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 36) Sydney by 2
Melbourne (67) lost to Western Bulldogs (88) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 21) Western Bulldogs by 13

Round 5

Collingwood (80) defeated Essendon (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 1) Collingwood by 18
Fremantle (57) lost to Carlton (65) at Subiaco (WA) [Carlton by 8) Carlton by 16
Greater Western Sydney (62) lost to Western Bulldogs (104) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 42) Western Bulldogs by 22
North Melbourne (127) defeated Gold Coast (93) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 34) North Melbourne by 90
Melbourne (66) lost to St Kilda (84) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 18) St Kilda by 40
Brisbane Lions (41) lost to Geelong (79) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 38) Geelong by 32
Hawthorn (69) lost to Sydney (106) at York Park (TAS) [Sydney by 37) Hawthorn by 24
Richmond (97) lost to West Coast (107) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 10) West Coast by 13
Adelaide (110) defeated Port Adelaide (91) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 19) Adelaide by 23

Round 6

Western Bulldogs (77) lost to Collingwood (98) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 21) Collingwood by 27
Essendon (129) defeated Brisbane Lions (62) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 67) Essendon by 29
Geelong (119) defeated Melbourne (76) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 43) Geelong by 60
Gold Coast (87) lost to Fremantle (94) at Carrara (QLD) [Fremantle by 7) Fremantle by 42
Sydney (94) lost to Adelaide (99) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Adelaide by 5) Sydney by 32
St Kilda (88) lost to Hawthorn (123) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 35) Hawthorn by 20
Carlton (110) defeated Greater Western Sydney (43) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 67) Carlton by 67
Port Adelaide (54) lost to Richmond (91) at Football Park (SA) [Richmond by 37) Richmond by 22
West Coast (120) defeated North Melbourne (95) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 25) West Coast by 22

Round 7

Melbourne (49) lost to Hawthorn (115) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 66) Hawthorn by 65
Adelaide (122) defeated Geelong (72) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 50) Geelong by 7
Greater Western Sydney (94) defeated Gold Coast (67) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 27) Gold Coast by 0
Richmond (91) defeated Sydney (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 29) Richmond by 7
Brisbane Lions (58) lost to Collingwood (116) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 58) Collingwood by 19
Essendon (113) defeated West Coast (52) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 61) West Coast by 6
North Melbourne (83) lost to Western Bulldogs (101) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 18) North Melbourne by 27
Fremantle (87) defeated Port Adelaide (47) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 40) Fremantle by 45
St Kilda (122) defeated Carlton (98) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 24) Carlton by 28

Round 8

Collingwood (96) defeated Geelong (84) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 12) Collingwood by 8
Port Adelaide (95) defeated North Melbourne (93) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 2) North Melbourne by 17
Hawthorn (119) defeated Fremantle (63) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 56) Hawthorn by 26
Sydney (138) defeated Melbourne (37) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 101) Sydney by 52
Western Bulldogs (72) defeated Gold Coast (34) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Western Bulldogs by 38) Western Bulldogs by 43
Essendon (128) defeated Richmond (109) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 19) Essendon by 8
Brisbane Lions (132) defeated Greater Western Sydney (40) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 92) Brisbane Lions by 29
Carlton (55) lost to Adelaide (124) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 69) Carlton by 29
West Coast (121) defeated St Kilda (91) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 30) West Coast by 22

Round 9

Western Bulldogs (75) lost to Geelong (95) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 20) Geelong by 20
Richmond (137) defeated Hawthorn (75) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 62) Hawthorn by 21
Gold Coast (70) lost to Port Adelaide (118) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 48) Port Adelaide by 10
St Kilda (111) defeated Sydney (83) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 28) St Kilda by 3
Adelaide (49) lost to Collingwood (75) at Football Park (SA) [Collingwood by 26) Adelaide by 27
Greater Western Sydney (53) lost to Essendon (119) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Essendon by 66) Essendon by 52
North Melbourne (112) defeated Brisbane Lions (96) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 16) North Melbourne by 24
Carlton (107) defeated Melbourne (49) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 58) Carlton by 51
West Coast (84) defeated Fremantle (36) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 48) West Coast by 16

Round 10

St Kilda (113) lost to Richmond (121) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 8) Richmond by 4
Geelong (126) defeated Greater Western Sydney (61) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 65) Geelong by 64
Hawthorn (174) defeated North Melbourne (59) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 115) Hawthorn by 38
Fremantle (82) lost to Adelaide (111) at Subiaco (WA) [Adelaide by 29) Fremantle by 4
Port Adelaide (99) defeated Carlton (45) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 54) Carlton by 31
Essendon (52) lost to Melbourne (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 6) Essendon by 60
Brisbane Lions (102) defeated West Coast (100) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 2) West Coast by 21
Sydney (132) defeated Western Bulldogs (40) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 92) Sydney by 33
Collingwood (149) defeated Gold Coast (52) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 97) Collingwood by 76

Round 11

Carlton (85) lost to Geelong (97) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 12) Geelong by 14
Richmond (66) lost to Fremantle (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 12) Richmond by 18
Gold Coast (49) lost to St Kilda (144) at Carrara (QLD) [St Kilda by 95) St Kilda by 54
Essendon (82) lost to Sydney (86) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 4) Essendon by 2
Port Adelaide (62) lost to Hawthorn (108) at Football Park (SA) [Hawthorn by 46) Hawthorn by 36
Melbourne (87) lost to Collingwood (129) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 42) Collingwood by 50

Round 12

West Coast (79) defeated Carlton (69) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 10) West Coast by 17
Adelaide (115) defeated St Kilda (111) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 4) St Kilda by 3
Greater Western Sydney (74) lost to Richmond (86) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Richmond by 12) Richmond by 52
Gold Coast (80) lost to North Melbourne (87) at Carrara (QLD) [North Melbourne by 7) North Melbourne by 44
Hawthorn (135) defeated Brisbane Lions (70) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 65) Hawthorn by 55
Western Bulldogs (95) defeated Port Adelaide (57) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 38) Western Bulldogs by 10

Round 13

Sydney (80) defeated Geelong (74) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 6) Sydney by 14
Western Bulldogs (56) lost to Brisbane Lions (114) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 58) Western Bulldogs by 7
Collingwood (85) defeated West Coast (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 3) Collingwood by 7
Fremantle (89) lost to Essendon (113) at Subiaco (WA) [Essendon by 24) Essendon by 5
Melbourne (135) defeated Greater Western Sydney (57) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 78) Melbourne by 25
North Melbourne (121) defeated Adelaide (89) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 32) Adelaide by 19

Round 14

Carlton (70) lost to Hawthorn (120) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 50) Hawthorn by 28
Collingwood (107) defeated Fremantle (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 29) Collingwood by 21
Adelaide (106) defeated Richmond (87) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 19) Adelaide by 10
West Coast (166) defeated Gold Coast (40) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 126) West Coast by 92
Essendon (140) defeated Western Bulldogs (56) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 84) Essendon by 25
Sydney (132) defeated Greater Western Sydney (38) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 94) Sydney by 63
Geelong (99) defeated Port Adelaide (61) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 38) Geelong by 42
Brisbane Lions (122) defeated Melbourne (61) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 61) Brisbane Lions by 31
St Kilda (103) lost to North Melbourne (136) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 33) St Kilda by 27

Round 15

Collingwood (62) lost to Carlton (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 23) Collingwood by 15
North Melbourne (84) lost to West Coast (86) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [West Coast by 2) West Coast by 23
Melbourne (78) lost to Richmond (101) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 23) Richmond by 30
Sydney (110) defeated Brisbane Lions (63) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 47) Sydney by 45
Port Adelaide (58) lost to Adelaide (116) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 58) Adelaide by 22
St Kilda (133) defeated Essendon (62) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 71) Essendon by 8
Hawthorn (193) defeated Greater Western Sydney (31) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 162) Hawthorn by 96
Gold Coast (96) lost to Geelong (110) at Carrara (QLD) [Geelong by 14) Geelong by 49
Fremantle (95) defeated Western Bulldogs (57) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 38) Fremantle by 33

Round 16

North Melbourne (149) defeated Carlton (96) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 53) Carlton by 11
Melbourne (83) lost to Fremantle (117) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 34) Fremantle by 17
Port Adelaide (77) lost to Essendon (127) at Football Park (SA) [Essendon by 50) Essendon by 11
Richmond (88) lost to Gold Coast (90) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Gold Coast by 2) Richmond by 53
Geelong (79) lost to Collingwood (110) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 31) Collingwood by 10
Brisbane Lions (92) lost to St Kilda (105) at Gabba (QLD) [St Kilda by 13) St Kilda by 10
Greater Western Sydney (59) lost to Adelaide (178) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Adelaide by 119) Adelaide by 48
Western Bulldogs (44) lost to Hawthorn (116) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 72) Hawthorn by 48
West Coast (69) lost to Sydney (121) at Subiaco (WA) [Sydney by 52) West Coast by 7

Round 17

Geelong (134) defeated Essendon (67) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 67) Essendon by 13
Collingwood (91) lost to Hawthorn (138) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 47) Hawthorn by 28
Adelaide (124) defeated West Coast (75) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 49) Adelaide by 9
Gold Coast (48) lost to Brisbane Lions (59) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 11) Brisbane Lions by 30
Melbourne (56) lost to Port Adelaide (84) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Port Adelaide by 28) Port Adelaide by 15
Western Bulldogs (84) lost to Carlton (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 18) Carlton by 11
Sydney (105) defeated St Kilda (76) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 29) Sydney by 12
Richmond (99) lost to North Melbourne (103) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 4) Richmond by 17
Fremantle (132) defeated Greater Western Sydney (37) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 95) Fremantle by 61

Round 18

Essendon (86) lost to Hawthorn (180) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 94) Hawthorn by 36
Geelong (102) defeated Adelaide (75) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 27) Geelong by 21
North Melbourne (127) defeated Melbourne (73) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 54) North Melbourne by 32
Greater Western Sydney (54) lost to Collingwood (174) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Collingwood by 120) Collingwood by 53
Carlton (95) defeated Richmond (91) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 4) Richmond by 3
Gold Coast (54) lost to Sydney (126) at Carrara (QLD) [Sydney by 72) Sydney by 49
Port Adelaide (48) lost to Fremantle (75) at Football Park (SA) [Fremantle by 27) Fremantle by 8
St Kilda (118) defeated Western Bulldogs (42) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 76) St Kilda by 34
West Coast (175) defeated Brisbane Lions (77) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 98) West Coast by 51

Round 19

Hawthorn (116) lost to Geelong (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 2) Hawthorn by 27
Western Bulldogs (61) lost to North Melbourne (115) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 54) North Melbourne by 33
Greater Western Sydney (107) defeated Port Adelaide (73) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 34) Port Adelaide by 26
Fremantle (113) defeated West Coast (48) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 65) West Coast by 10
Collingwood (91) defeated St Kilda (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 6) Collingwood by 9
Brisbane Lions (84) lost to Richmond (132) at Gabba (QLD) [Richmond by 48) Richmond by 10
Melbourne (108) defeated Gold Coast (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 42) Melbourne by 21
Carlton (71) lost to Sydney (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 22) Sydney by 6
Adelaide (104) defeated Essendon (100) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 4) Adelaide by 20

Round 20

West Coast (102) defeated Geelong (97) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 5) West Coast by 15
St Kilda (107) defeated Melbourne (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 25) St Kilda by 47
Adelaide (119) defeated Fremantle (91) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 28) Adelaide by 23
Gold Coast (109) defeated Greater Western Sydney (79) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 30) Gold Coast by 24
Carlton (113) defeated Brisbane Lions (77) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 36) Carlton by 35
Sydney (70) lost to Collingwood (78) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Collingwood by 8) Sydney by 17
Hawthorn (159) defeated Port Adelaide (87) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 72) Hawthorn by 67
Richmond (150) defeated Western Bulldogs (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 70) Richmond by 38
Essendon (76) lost to North Melbourne (100) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 24) Essendon by 7

Round 21

Geelong (123) defeated St Kilda (81) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 42) Geelong by 6
Essendon (60) lost to Carlton (156) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 96) Essendon by 7
Greater Western Sydney (59) lost to Melbourne (84) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Melbourne by 25) Melbourne by 20
Fremantle (94) defeated Richmond (72) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 22) Fremantle by 13
Brisbane Lions (95) defeated Adelaide (85) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 10) Adelaide by 23
Collingwood (61) lost to North Melbourne (91) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 30) Collingwood by 15
Port Adelaide (50) lost to West Coast (98) at Football Park (SA) [West Coast by 48) West Coast by 31
Western Bulldogs (85) lost to Sydney (167) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 82) Sydney by 29
Hawthorn (129) defeated Gold Coast (65) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 64) Hawthorn by 105

Round 22

Richmond (102) defeated Essendon (57) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 45) Richmond by 10
St Kilda (163) defeated Greater Western Sydney (35) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 128) St Kilda by 74
Port Adelaide (93) lost to Brisbane Lions (104) at Football Park (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 11) Port Adelaide by 5
Sydney (95) lost to Hawthorn (102) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Hawthorn by 7) Hawthorn by 7
West Coast (107) defeated Collingwood (58) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 49) West Coast by 6
Gold Coast (98) defeated Carlton (86) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 12) Carlton by 43
Geelong (107) defeated Western Bulldogs (73) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 34) Geelong by 54
North Melbourne (79) lost to Fremantle (132) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 53) North Melbourne by 13
Melbourne (81) lost to Adelaide (150) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 69) Adelaide by 27

Round 23

Hawthorn (95) defeated West Coast (70) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 25) Hawthorn by 37
Geelong (112) defeated Sydney (78) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 34) Geelong by 16
Adelaide (153) defeated Gold Coast (62) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 91) Adelaide by 70
Greater Western Sydney (77) lost to North Melbourne (105) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [North Melbourne by 28) North Melbourne by 53
Fremantle (101) defeated Melbourne (40) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 61) Fremantle by 48
Essendon (72) lost to Collingwood (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 32) Collingwood by 16
Carlton (91) lost to St Kilda (106) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 15) St Kilda by 15
Richmond (106) drew with Port Adelaide (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Richmond by 47
Brisbane Lions (128) defeated Western Bulldogs (61) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 67) Brisbane Lions by 23

Qualifying Final

Hawthorn (135) defeated Collingwood (97) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 38) Hawthorn by 13
Adelaide (42) lost to Sydney (71) at Football Park (SA) [Sydney by 29) Adelaide by 3
Geelong (80) lost to Fremantle (96) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 16) Geelong by 11
West Coast (162) defeated North Melbourne (66) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 96) West Coast by 24

Semi Final

Adelaide (81) defeated Fremantle (71) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 10) Adelaide by 11
Collingwood (73) defeated West Coast (60) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 13) West Coast by 2

Preliminary Final

Sydney (96) defeated Collingwood (70) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 26) Sydney by 24
Hawthorn (97) defeated Adelaide (92) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 5) Hawthorn by 31

Grand Final

Hawthorn (81) lost to Sydney (91) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 10) Hawthorn by 17

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SKILL

90%

LUCK

10%

Open Door

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Hawthorn	76.0	63.1	69.6
2	Sydney	62.4	72.5	67.4
3	West Coast	62.0	64.6	63.3
4	Geelong	65.8	59.9	62.9
5	St Kilda	64.0	60.5	62.2
6	Adelaide	62.1	60.8	61.5
7	Collingwood	61.3	61.3	61.3
8	Fremantle	55.6	66.1	60.8
9	Carlton	61.3	58.3	59.8
10	Richmond	62.7	56.2	59.4
11	Essendon	59.3	52.9	56.1
12	North Melbourne	60.7	51.3	56.0
13	Brisbane Lions	53.5	52.3	52.9
14	Port Adelaide	47.9	50.9	49.4
15	Western Bulldogs	46.4	49.8	48.1
16	Melbourne	47.2	47.8	47.5
17	Gold Coast	43.7	43.8	43.8
18	Greater Western Sydney	37.9	41.3	39.6