Squiggle 2011

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

In 2011, algorithm SQUIGGLE5 correctly tipped 152 games at an accuracy of 77.55%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 1

Carlton (104) defeated Richmond (84) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 20) Carlton by 23
Geelong (48) defeated St Kilda (47) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 1) Geelong by 11
Collingwood (155) defeated Port Adelaide (80) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 75) Collingwood by 62
Adelaide (105) defeated Hawthorn (85) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 20) Adelaide by 1
Brisbane Lions (92) lost to Fremantle (94) at Gabba (QLD) [Fremantle by 2) Brisbane Lions by 1
Essendon (113) defeated Western Bulldogs (58) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 55) Western Bulldogs by 24
Melbourne (84) drew with Sydney (84) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Sydney by 8
West Coast (92) defeated North Melbourne (88) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 4) North Melbourne by 6

Round 2

St Kilda (95) drew with Richmond (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) St Kilda by 32
North Melbourne (56) lost to Collingwood (143) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 87) Collingwood by 44
Port Adelaide (98) lost to West Coast (116) at Football Park (SA) [West Coast by 18) Port Adelaide by 13
Gold Coast (52) lost to Carlton (171) at Gabba (QLD) [Carlton by 119) Carlton by 17
Fremantle (78) lost to Geelong (89) at Subiaco (WA) [Geelong by 11) Geelong by 17
Western Bulldogs (123) defeated Brisbane Lions (45) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 78) Western Bulldogs by 22
Sydney (98) defeated Essendon (93) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 5) Sydney by 9
Hawthorn (122) defeated Melbourne (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 45) Hawthorn by 15

Round 3

Collingwood (102) defeated Carlton (74) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 28) Collingwood by 21
Western Bulldogs (122) defeated Gold Coast (51) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 71) Western Bulldogs by 33
Adelaide (54) lost to Fremantle (79) at Football Park (SA) [Fremantle by 25) Adelaide by 10
Richmond (52) lost to Hawthorn (115) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 63) Hawthorn by 39
West Coast (88) lost to Sydney (101) at Subiaco (WA) [Sydney by 13) Sydney by 2
Melbourne (82) defeated Brisbane Lions (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 11) Melbourne by 20
Geelong (122) defeated Port Adelaide (43) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 79) Geelong by 53
St Kilda (84) lost to Essendon (136) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 52) St Kilda by 4

Round 4

Richmond (90) lost to Collingwood (161) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 71) Collingwood by 63
Carlton (79) drew with Essendon (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Carlton by 4
Hawthorn (72) defeated West Coast (65) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 7) Hawthorn by 36
Sydney (54) lost to Geelong (81) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Geelong by 27) Geelong by 8
Port Adelaide (98) defeated Adelaide (66) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 32) Adelaide by 21
Gold Coast (69) lost to Melbourne (159) at Gabba (QLD) [Melbourne by 90) Melbourne by 8
Fremantle (127) defeated North Melbourne (98) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 29) Fremantle by 29

Round 5

Brisbane Lions (76) lost to St Kilda (89) at Gabba (QLD) [St Kilda by 13) St Kilda by 16
Port Adelaide (101) lost to Gold Coast (104) at Football Park (SA) [Gold Coast by 3) Port Adelaide by 24
Carlton (85) defeated Adelaide (79) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 6) Carlton by 32
North Melbourne (103) lost to Richmond (112) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 9) North Melbourne by 8
Essendon (77) lost to Collingwood (107) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 30) Collingwood by 27
Fremantle (85) defeated Western Bulldogs (78) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 7) Fremantle by 13
Hawthorn (98) lost to Geelong (117) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 19) Geelong by 11

Round 6

West Coast (106) defeated Melbourne (52) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 54) West Coast by 12
Sydney (71) lost to Carlton (87) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Carlton by 16) Carlton by 2
North Melbourne (133) defeated Port Adelaide (73) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 60) North Melbourne by 21
Richmond (124) defeated Brisbane Lions (98) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 26) Richmond by 17
Adelaide (90) defeated St Kilda (71) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 19) St Kilda by 2
Essendon (197) defeated Gold Coast (58) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 139) Essendon by 56
Collingwood (105) defeated Western Bulldogs (57) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 48) Collingwood by 31

Round 7

Port Adelaide (72) lost to Hawthorn (104) at Football Park (SA) [Hawthorn by 32) Hawthorn by 31
Western Bulldogs (65) lost to Sydney (73) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Sydney by 8) Sydney by 6
Geelong (127) defeated North Melbourne (61) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 66) Geelong by 47
Richmond (148) defeated Fremantle (99) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 49) Fremantle by 18
Gold Coast (124) defeated Brisbane Lions (116) at Gabba (QLD) [Gold Coast by 8) Brisbane Lions by 13
Essendon (106) defeated West Coast (90) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 16) Essendon by 32
Melbourne (149) defeated Adelaide (53) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 96) Melbourne by 6
St Kilda (81) lost to Carlton (84) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 3) Carlton by 10

Round 8

Geelong (65) defeated Collingwood (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 3) Collingwood by 9
North Melbourne (124) defeated Melbourne (83) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 41) Melbourne by 8
Adelaide (130) defeated Gold Coast (73) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 57) Adelaide by 24
Brisbane Lions (66) lost to Essendon (102) at Gabba (QLD) [Essendon by 36) Essendon by 32
Sydney (121) defeated Port Adelaide (59) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 62) Sydney by 40
Hawthorn (99) defeated St Kilda (69) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 30) Hawthorn by 8
Western Bulldogs (153) defeated Richmond (118) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 35) Western Bulldogs by 17
West Coast (96) defeated Fremantle (63) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 33) Fremantle by 4

Round 9

Carlton (100) lost to Geelong (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 2) Geelong by 13
St Kilda (106) defeated Melbourne (86) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 20) St Kilda by 7
Port Adelaide (90) lost to Fremantle (142) at Football Park (SA) [Fremantle by 52) Fremantle by 19
Richmond (105) defeated Essendon (89) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 16) Essendon by 34
Brisbane Lions (73) defeated North Melbourne (59) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 14) North Melbourne by 12
Collingwood (135) defeated Adelaide (92) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 43) Collingwood by 57
Sydney (60) lost to Hawthorn (106) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Hawthorn by 46) Sydney by 1
West Coast (175) defeated Western Bulldogs (52) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 123) West Coast by 10

Round 10

Melbourne (46) lost to Carlton (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 47) Carlton by 26
North Melbourne (71) lost to Sydney (72) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 1) North Melbourne by 2
Fremantle (56) lost to St Kilda (102) at Subiaco (WA) [St Kilda by 46) Fremantle by 11
Gold Coast (73) lost to Geelong (139) at Carrara (QLD) [Geelong by 66) Geelong by 60
Richmond (74) lost to Port Adelaide (89) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Port Adelaide by 15) Richmond by 23
Adelaide (61) lost to Brisbane Lions (101) at Football Park (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 40) Adelaide by 21
Collingwood (105) defeated West Coast (53) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 52) Collingwood by 28
Western Bulldogs (62) lost to Hawthorn (91) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 29) Hawthorn by 20

Round 11

Essendon (68) lost to Melbourne (101) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 33) Essendon by 18
Geelong (148) defeated Western Bulldogs (87) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 61) Geelong by 45
West Coast (85) defeated Gold Coast (67) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 18) West Coast by 56
Collingwood (108) defeated St Kilda (51) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 57) Collingwood by 27
Brisbane Lions (51) lost to Sydney (116) at Gabba (QLD) [Sydney by 65) Sydney by 5
Hawthorn (111) defeated Fremantle (89) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 22) Hawthorn by 31
North Melbourne (115) defeated Adelaide (68) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 47) North Melbourne by 19
Port Adelaide (49) lost to Carlton (111) at Football Park (SA) [Carlton by 62) Carlton by 43

Round 12

St Kilda (81) defeated Western Bulldogs (57) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 24) St Kilda by 8
Adelaide (67) lost to West Coast (106) at Football Park (SA) [West Coast by 39) West Coast by 18
Geelong (88) defeated Hawthorn (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 5) Geelong by 10
Gold Coast (63) lost to North Melbourne (122) at Carrara (QLD) [North Melbourne by 59) North Melbourne by 14
Carlton (124) defeated Brisbane Lions (63) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 61) Carlton by 55
Sydney (75) defeated Richmond (65) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 10) Sydney by 30
Fremantle (98) defeated Essendon (64) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 34) Fremantle by 4
Melbourne (41) lost to Collingwood (129) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 88) Collingwood by 38

Round 13

Western Bulldogs (100) defeated Adelaide (70) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 30) Western Bulldogs by 23
Essendon (90) lost to North Melbourne (111) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 21) Essendon by 8
Hawthorn (129) defeated Gold Coast (58) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 71) Hawthorn by 52
St Kilda (72) lost to Geelong (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 28) Geelong by 21
Brisbane Lions (94) lost to Richmond (125) at Gabba (QLD) [Richmond by 31) Brisbane Lions by 1
Melbourne (149) defeated Fremantle (60) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 89) Melbourne by 1
Carlton (100) defeated Sydney (66) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 34) Carlton by 27
West Coast (110) defeated Port Adelaide (88) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 22) West Coast by 54

Round 14

Hawthorn (146) defeated Essendon (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 65) Hawthorn by 14
Gold Coast (88) lost to Western Bulldogs (110) at Carrara (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 22) Western Bulldogs by 15
Richmond (91) lost to Melbourne (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 27) Melbourne by 12
Sydney (93) lost to Collingwood (99) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Collingwood by 6) Collingwood by 22
Fremantle (88) defeated Brisbane Lions (65) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 23) Fremantle by 35
Geelong (125) defeated Adelaide (73) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 52) Geelong by 66
Carlton (67) lost to West Coast (103) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 36) Carlton by 21
Port Adelaide (91) lost to North Melbourne (136) at Football Park (SA) [North Melbourne by 45) North Melbourne by 18

Round 15

Western Bulldogs (127) defeated Melbourne (63) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 64) Melbourne by 5
Richmond (81) lost to Carlton (184) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 103) Carlton by 35
Fremantle (112) defeated Gold Coast (62) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 50) Fremantle by 36
Essendon (115) defeated Geelong (111) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 4) Geelong by 24
Adelaide (57) defeated Sydney (50) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 7) Sydney by 11
Brisbane Lions (99) defeated Port Adelaide (88) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 11) Brisbane Lions by 17
Collingwood (106) defeated Hawthorn (65) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 41) Collingwood by 21
North Melbourne (70) lost to St Kilda (79) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 9) St Kilda by 5

Round 16

West Coast (96) defeated Geelong (88) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 8) West Coast by 0
Hawthorn (105) defeated Brisbane Lions (63) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 42) Hawthorn by 52
Essendon (105) defeated Richmond (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 39) Essendon by 20
Gold Coast (36) lost to Sydney (106) at Carrara (QLD) [Sydney by 70) Sydney by 23
Collingwood (147) defeated North Melbourne (30) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 117) Collingwood by 47
Port Adelaide (53) lost to St Kilda (109) at Football Park (SA) [St Kilda by 56) St Kilda by 20
Western Bulldogs (96) defeated Carlton (69) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 27) Carlton by 24

Round 17

Adelaide (73) lost to Essendon (84) at Football Park (SA) [Essendon by 11) Essendon by 13
Carlton (79) lost to Collingwood (98) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 19) Collingwood by 27
Richmond (70) lost to Gold Coast (85) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Gold Coast by 15) Richmond by 12
St Kilda (82) defeated West Coast (61) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 21) West Coast by 1
Melbourne (113) defeated Port Adelaide (92) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Melbourne by 21) Melbourne by 29
Sydney (87) lost to Fremantle (98) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Fremantle by 11) Sydney by 22
Brisbane Lions (104) lost to Geelong (133) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 29) Geelong by 39
North Melbourne (142) defeated Western Bulldogs (111) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 31) Western Bulldogs by 6

Round 18

St Kilda (127) defeated Adelaide (24) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 103) St Kilda by 31
Sydney (114) defeated Western Bulldogs (75) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 39) Sydney by 17
North Melbourne (122) defeated Brisbane Lions (77) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 45) North Melbourne by 31
Essendon (79) lost to Carlton (153) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 74) Carlton by 17
Gold Coast (75) lost to Collingwood (129) at Carrara (QLD) [Collingwood by 54) Collingwood by 69
Geelong (113) defeated Richmond (51) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 62) Geelong by 45
Melbourne (78) lost to Hawthorn (132) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 54) Hawthorn by 20
Fremantle (64) lost to West Coast (65) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 1) West Coast by 17

Round 19

North Melbourne (62) lost to Carlton (80) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 18) Carlton by 25
Western Bulldogs (95) lost to West Coast (103) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 8) West Coast by 11
Geelong (233) defeated Melbourne (47) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 186) Geelong by 42
Gold Coast (54) lost to St Kilda (74) at Carrara (QLD) [St Kilda by 20) St Kilda by 29
Fremantle (44) lost to Hawthorn (95) at Subiaco (WA) [Hawthorn by 51) Hawthorn by 8
Collingwood (166) defeated Essendon (92) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 74) Collingwood by 46
Adelaide (111) defeated Port Adelaide (79) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 32) Adelaide by 8

Round 20

St Kilda (113) defeated Fremantle (72) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 41) St Kilda by 23
Geelong (188) defeated Gold Coast (38) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 150) Geelong by 74
Carlton (134) defeated Melbourne (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 76) Carlton by 35
Essendon (100) defeated Sydney (99) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 1) Essendon by 3
Port Adelaide (21) lost to Collingwood (159) at Football Park (SA) [Collingwood by 138) Collingwood by 72
Brisbane Lions (105) lost to Adelaide (110) at Gabba (QLD) [Adelaide by 5) Brisbane Lions by 11
Hawthorn (103) defeated North Melbourne (86) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 17) Hawthorn by 34
West Coast (147) defeated Richmond (90) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 57) West Coast by 48

Round 21

St Kilda (70) lost to Collingwood (89) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 19) Collingwood by 38
Hawthorn (197) defeated Port Adelaide (32) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 165) Hawthorn by 72
Fremantle (85) lost to Carlton (115) at Subiaco (WA) [Carlton by 30) Carlton by 17
Western Bulldogs (101) lost to Essendon (150) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 49) Essendon by 4
Brisbane Lions (123) defeated Gold Coast (61) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 62) Brisbane Lions by 9
Melbourne (62) lost to West Coast (110) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 48) West Coast by 22
Richmond (99) defeated Sydney (56) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 43) Sydney by 18
Adelaide (85) lost to Geelong (96) at Football Park (SA) [Geelong by 11) Geelong by 49

Round 22

Carlton (66) lost to Hawthorn (78) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 12) Hawthorn by 3
Gold Coast (64) lost to Adelaide (125) at Carrara (QLD) [Adelaide by 61) Adelaide by 4
West Coast (134) defeated Essendon (77) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 57) West Coast by 29
Collingwood (102) defeated Brisbane Lions (84) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 18) Collingwood by 87
North Melbourne (143) defeated Fremantle (45) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 98) North Melbourne by 14
Sydney (83) defeated St Kilda (68) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 15) Sydney by 2
Port Adelaide (97) lost to Western Bulldogs (157) at Football Park (SA) [Western Bulldogs by 60) Western Bulldogs by 27
Melbourne (110) lost to Richmond (117) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 7) Melbourne by 1

Round 23

Fremantle (52) lost to Collingwood (132) at Subiaco (WA) [Collingwood by 80) Collingwood by 51
Hawthorn (113) defeated Western Bulldogs (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 46) Hawthorn by 36
Geelong (86) lost to Sydney (99) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Sydney by 13) Geelong by 39
St Kilda (135) defeated North Melbourne (70) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 65) St Kilda by 8
Brisbane Lions (81) lost to West Coast (89) at Gabba (QLD) [West Coast by 8) West Coast by 26
Adelaide (99) lost to Richmond (121) at Football Park (SA) [Richmond by 22) Adelaide by 10
Melbourne (112) defeated Gold Coast (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 30) Melbourne by 34
Essendon (120) defeated Port Adelaide (113) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 7) Essendon by 61

Round 24

Collingwood (53) lost to Geelong (149) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 96) Collingwood by 26
Gold Coast (97) lost to Hawthorn (106) at Carrara (QLD) [Hawthorn by 9) Hawthorn by 54
Western Bulldogs (107) defeated Fremantle (61) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 46) Western Bulldogs by 15
Sydney (119) defeated Brisbane Lions (67) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 52) Sydney by 39
West Coast (145) defeated Adelaide (50) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 95) West Coast by 46
Carlton (66) lost to St Kilda (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 20) Carlton by 5
Port Adelaide (112) defeated Melbourne (104) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 8) Melbourne by 16
Richmond (91) lost to North Melbourne (104) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 13) North Melbourne by 17

Qualifying Final

Geelong (98) defeated Hawthorn (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 31) Geelong by 15
Collingwood (82) defeated West Coast (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 20) Collingwood by 38
St Kilda (57) lost to Sydney (82) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 25) St Kilda by 17
Carlton (149) defeated Essendon (87) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 62) Carlton by 27

Semi Final

Hawthorn (122) defeated Sydney (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 36) Hawthorn by 19
West Coast (101) defeated Carlton (98) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 3) West Coast by 8

Preliminary Final

Collingwood (68) defeated Hawthorn (65) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 3) Collingwood by 21
Geelong (117) defeated West Coast (69) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 48) Geelong by 30

Grand Final

Collingwood (81) lost to Geelong (119) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 38) Collingwood by 3

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Geelong	76.7	72.3	74.5
2	Collingwood	65.9	77.7	71.8
3	Hawthorn	64.0	68.5	66.3
4	Carlton	66.7	62.2	64.4
5	West Coast	61.0	64.1	62.5
6	St Kilda	54.0	67.6	60.8
7	Sydney	58.3	62.1	60.2
8	North Melbourne	58.8	53.6	56.2
9	Essendon	60.2	48.1	54.1
10	Western Bulldogs	56.1	51.5	53.8
11	Richmond	58.4	46.6	52.5
12	Fremantle	51.1	50.3	50.7
13	Brisbane Lions	51.4	48.8	50.1
14	Melbourne	52.0	48.1	50.1
15	Adelaide	49.5	49.0	49.2
16	Gold Coast	48.3	44.6	46.5
17	Port Adelaide	44.8	41.7	43.3