INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

• They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.

• They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.

• They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).

• They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

• Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.

• Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

• Scores, obviously.

• Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.

• Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.

• Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.

• Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.

• Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

• Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.

• Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

• Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.

• Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.

• Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.

• Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.

• The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

• Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.

• Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.

• Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

• Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.

• Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.

• Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Wed Jun 13 12:06:42 2018 (R27)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

In 2010, algorithm SQUIGGLE5 correctly tipped 121 games at an accuracy of 65.05%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 1

Richmond (64) lost to Carlton (120) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 56) Carlton by 33
Geelong (125) defeated Essendon (94) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 31) Geelong by 27
Melbourne (61) lost to Hawthorn (117) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 56) Hawthorn by 14
Sydney (88) lost to St Kilda (96) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [St Kilda by 8) St Kilda by 21
Brisbane Lions (114) defeated West Coast (82) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 32) Brisbane Lions by 17
Port Adelaide (96) defeated North Melbourne (82) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 14) Port Adelaide by 4
Western Bulldogs (93) lost to Collingwood (129) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 36) Western Bulldogs by 12
Fremantle (118) defeated Adelaide (62) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 56) Adelaide by 25

Round 2

Brisbane Lions (107) defeated Carlton (88) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 19) Brisbane Lions by 6
Collingwood (86) defeated Melbourne (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 1) Collingwood by 49
St Kilda (143) defeated North Melbourne (39) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 104) St Kilda by 32
West Coast (86) lost to Port Adelaide (89) at Subiaco (WA) [Port Adelaide by 3) West Coast by 11
Adelaide (75) lost to Sydney (118) at Football Park (SA) [Sydney by 43) Adelaide by 21
Essendon (69) lost to Fremantle (113) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 44) Essendon by 2
Richmond (48) lost to Western Bulldogs (120) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 72) Western Bulldogs by 46
Hawthorn (91) lost to Geelong (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 9) Geelong by 20

Round 3

St Kilda (69) defeated Collingwood (41) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 28) St Kilda by 21
North Melbourne (116) defeated West Coast (91) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 25) West Coast by 3
Port Adelaide (81) lost to Brisbane Lions (108) at Football Park (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 27) Brisbane Lions by 2
Carlton (75) lost to Essendon (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 20) Carlton by 13
Sydney (111) defeated Richmond (56) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 55) Sydney by 52
Melbourne (57) defeated Adelaide (41) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 16) Adelaide by 10
Western Bulldogs (100) defeated Hawthorn (84) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 16) Western Bulldogs by 25
Fremantle (125) defeated Geelong (118) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 7) Fremantle by 1

Round 4

West Coast (101) defeated Essendon (78) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 23) Essendon by 6
North Melbourne (60) lost to Sydney (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 40) Sydney by 16
Adelaide (55) lost to Carlton (103) at Football Park (SA) [Carlton by 48) Adelaide by 2
Collingwood (123) defeated Hawthorn (59) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 64) Collingwood by 16
Brisbane Lions (101) defeated Western Bulldogs (79) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 22) Western Bulldogs by 6
Richmond (78) lost to Melbourne (133) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 55) Melbourne by 18
Geelong (159) defeated Port Adelaide (64) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 95) Geelong by 44
St Kilda (108) defeated Fremantle (93) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 15) St Kilda by 26

Round 5

Western Bulldogs (121) defeated Adelaide (72) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 49) Western Bulldogs by 28
Sydney (115) defeated West Coast (63) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 52) Sydney by 32
Melbourne (103) defeated Brisbane Lions (53) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 50) Brisbane Lions by 14
Port Adelaide (54) defeated St Kilda (44) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 10) St Kilda by 32
Collingwood (120) defeated Essendon (55) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 65) Collingwood by 27
Hawthorn (70) lost to North Melbourne (82) at York Park (TAS) [North Melbourne by 12) Hawthorn by 24
Fremantle (112) defeated Richmond (73) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 39) Fremantle by 62
Carlton (104) defeated Geelong (68) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 36) Geelong by 20

Round 6

Western Bulldogs (46) lost to St Kilda (49) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 3) St Kilda by 9
North Melbourne (104) defeated Melbourne (78) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 26) Melbourne by 12
Adelaide (74) lost to Port Adelaide (97) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 23) Adelaide by 1
Essendon (106) defeated Hawthorn (63) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 43) Essendon by 2
Sydney (107) defeated Brisbane Lions (87) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 20) Sydney by 15
Geelong (161) defeated Richmond (53) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 108) Geelong by 68
Carlton (102) lost to Collingwood (155) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 53) Collingwood by 17
West Coast (73) lost to Fremantle (111) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 38) Fremantle by 28

Round 7

Melbourne (66) lost to Western Bulldogs (70) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 4) Western Bulldogs by 25
Essendon (106) lost to Port Adelaide (109) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 3) Essendon by 16
West Coast (102) defeated Hawthorn (94) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 8) West Coast by 10
Collingwood (157) defeated North Melbourne (91) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 66) Collingwood by 42
Brisbane Lions (100) lost to Fremantle (113) at Gabba (QLD) [Fremantle by 13) Brisbane Lions by 5
Geelong (126) defeated Sydney (59) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 67) Geelong by 25
Adelaide (104) defeated Richmond (54) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 50) Adelaide by 37
St Kilda (68) lost to Carlton (129) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 61) St Kilda by 15

Round 8

Fremantle (97) lost to Collingwood (133) at Subiaco (WA) [Collingwood by 36) Collingwood by 5
Western Bulldogs (101) defeated Sydney (63) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 38) Sydney by 0
Melbourne (46) lost to West Coast (75) at M.C.G. (VIC) [West Coast by 29) Melbourne by 17
North Melbourne (84) defeated Adelaide (75) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 9) North Melbourne by 3
Brisbane Lions (74) lost to Geelong (155) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 81) Geelong by 14
Richmond (86) lost to Hawthorn (89) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 3) Hawthorn by 24
Port Adelaide (92) lost to Carlton (118) at Football Park (SA) [Carlton by 26) Carlton by 13
St Kilda (81) lost to Essendon (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 12) St Kilda by 20

Round 9

Collingwood (50) lost to Geelong (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 36) Collingwood by 7
North Melbourne (57) lost to Western Bulldogs (127) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 70) Western Bulldogs by 32
Sydney (63) lost to Fremantle (100) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Fremantle by 37) Sydney by 0
Melbourne (111) defeated Port Adelaide (110) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Melbourne by 1) Port Adelaide by 4
Essendon (130) defeated Richmond (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 35) Essendon by 37
Adelaide (93) defeated Brisbane Lions (81) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 12) Adelaide by 2
Carlton (60) lost to Hawthorn (110) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 50) Carlton by 35
West Coast (56) lost to St Kilda (91) at Subiaco (WA) [St Kilda by 35) St Kilda by 9

Round 10

Essendon (99) defeated Western Bulldogs (90) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 9) Western Bulldogs by 23
Geelong (121) defeated Melbourne (67) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 54) Geelong by 53
Port Adelaide (30) lost to Richmond (77) at Football Park (SA) [Richmond by 47) Port Adelaide by 39
St Kilda (123) defeated Adelaide (76) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 47) St Kilda by 32
Brisbane Lions (88) defeated Collingwood (80) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 8) Collingwood by 22
Hawthorn (79) defeated Sydney (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 2) Hawthorn by 5
Carlton (105) defeated West Coast (76) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 29) Carlton by 28
Fremantle (139) defeated North Melbourne (78) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 61) Fremantle by 42

Round 11

Richmond (59) lost to St Kilda (97) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 38) St Kilda by 37
Carlton (101) defeated Melbourne (60) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 41) Carlton by 21
Adelaide (105) defeated Fremantle (82) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 23) Fremantle by 17
North Melbourne (90) defeated Brisbane Lions (89) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 1) Brisbane Lions by 4
West Coast (98) lost to Geelong (122) at Subiaco (WA) [Geelong by 24) Geelong by 32
Sydney (89) defeated Essendon (80) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 9) Sydney by 5
Hawthorn (74) defeated Port Adelaide (63) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 11) Hawthorn by 18
Collingwood (113) defeated Western Bulldogs (103) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 10) Collingwood by 9

Round 12

North Melbourne (97) defeated Carlton (68) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 29) Carlton by 25
Hawthorn (124) defeated Adelaide (77) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 47) Hawthorn by 8
Essendon (83) lost to Geelong (154) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 71) Geelong by 30
Port Adelaide (55) lost to Sydney (93) at Football Park (SA) [Sydney by 38) Port Adelaide by 1
Richmond (126) defeated West Coast (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 49) West Coast by 3
Western Bulldogs (121) defeated Brisbane Lions (56) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 65) Western Bulldogs by 28
Fremantle (67) lost to St Kilda (85) at Subiaco (WA) [St Kilda by 18) Fremantle by 4
Melbourne (76) drew with Collingwood (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Collingwood by 40

Round 13

Hawthorn (102) defeated Essendon (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 16) Essendon by 4
Carlton (87) lost to Fremantle (96) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 9) Carlton by 5
Brisbane Lions (86) lost to Richmond (105) at Gabba (QLD) [Richmond by 19) Brisbane Lions by 24
North Melbourne (129) defeated Port Adelaide (93) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 36) North Melbourne by 20
West Coast (59) lost to Western Bulldogs (119) at Subiaco (WA) [Western Bulldogs by 60) Western Bulldogs by 19
St Kilda (70) defeated Geelong (46) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 24) Geelong by 6
Sydney (71) lost to Collingwood (96) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Collingwood by 25) Collingwood by 12
Adelaide (117) defeated Melbourne (73) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 44) Adelaide by 13

Round 14

Carlton (120) defeated Brisbane Lions (65) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 55) Carlton by 25
Hawthorn (79) defeated Western Bulldogs (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 3) Western Bulldogs by 26
Fremantle (115) defeated Port Adelaide (58) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 57) Fremantle by 41
Collingwood (135) defeated West Coast (52) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 83) Collingwood by 52
Adelaide (124) defeated Essendon (40) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 84) Adelaide by 9
Geelong (98) defeated North Melbourne (63) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 35) Geelong by 45
Richmond (89) defeated Sydney (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 4) Sydney by 4
St Kilda (100) defeated Melbourne (65) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 35) St Kilda by 35

Round 15

Port Adelaide (79) lost to Collingwood (105) at Football Park (SA) [Collingwood by 26) Collingwood by 37
Geelong (85) defeated Hawthorn (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 2) Geelong by 28
West Coast (95) lost to Adelaide (117) at Subiaco (WA) [Adelaide by 22) Adelaide by 4
Richmond (100) defeated Fremantle (81) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 19) Fremantle by 20
Brisbane Lions (65) lost to St Kilda (79) at Gabba (QLD) [St Kilda by 14) St Kilda by 19
Sydney (85) defeated North Melbourne (55) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 30) Sydney by 17
Melbourne (122) defeated Essendon (103) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 19) Essendon by 5
Carlton (58) lost to Western Bulldogs (126) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 68) Western Bulldogs by 15

Round 16

Adelaide (74) defeated Geelong (63) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 11) Geelong by 15
Collingwood (100) defeated St Kilda (52) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 48) Collingwood by 3
Hawthorn (118) defeated Brisbane Lions (43) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 75) Hawthorn by 22
Essendon (100) lost to West Coast (132) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 32) Essendon by 18
Western Bulldogs (83) defeated Port Adelaide (47) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Western Bulldogs by 36) Western Bulldogs by 41
Carlton (68) lost to Sydney (107) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 39) Carlton by 14
Richmond (53) lost to North Melbourne (103) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 50) North Melbourne by 6
Fremantle (82) defeated Melbourne (71) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 11) Fremantle by 35

Round 17

St Kilda (87) drew with Hawthorn (87) at Docklands (VIC) [DRAW by 0) St Kilda by 13
Collingwood (127) defeated Richmond (45) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 82) Collingwood by 47
Geelong (127) defeated Brisbane Lions (64) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 63) Geelong by 55
North Melbourne (119) lost to Essendon (122) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 3) North Melbourne by 9
West Coast (83) lost to Carlton (109) at Subiaco (WA) [Carlton by 26) Carlton by 7
Western Bulldogs (158) defeated Fremantle (76) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 82) Western Bulldogs by 26
Melbourne (142) defeated Sydney (69) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 73) Sydney by 7
Port Adelaide (88) defeated Adelaide (69) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 19) Adelaide by 20

Round 18

Essendon (108) defeated St Kilda (75) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 33) St Kilda by 29
Collingwood (105) defeated Carlton (57) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 48) Collingwood by 31
Port Adelaide (92) defeated Hawthorn (84) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 8) Hawthorn by 16
Sydney (72) lost to Geelong (125) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Geelong by 53) Geelong by 10
Brisbane Lions (64) lost to Melbourne (74) at Gabba (QLD) [Melbourne by 10) Brisbane Lions by 2
Richmond (100) defeated Adelaide (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 20) Adelaide by 9
Western Bulldogs (143) defeated North Melbourne (72) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 71) Western Bulldogs by 32
Fremantle (160) defeated West Coast (85) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 75) Fremantle by 23

Round 19

Essendon (73) lost to Carlton (149) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 76) Carlton by 5
North Melbourne (123) defeated Fremantle (69) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 54) Fremantle by 4
Sydney (129) defeated Hawthorn (85) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 44) Sydney by 3
Geelong (85) lost to Collingwood (107) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 22) Collingwood by 14
West Coast (65) lost to Brisbane Lions (70) at Subiaco (WA) [Brisbane Lions by 5) West Coast by 10
St Kilda (151) defeated Port Adelaide (57) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 94) St Kilda by 36
Melbourne (109) defeated Richmond (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 29) Melbourne by 10
Adelaide (53) lost to Western Bulldogs (61) at Football Park (SA) [Western Bulldogs by 8) Western Bulldogs by 17

Round 20

Essendon (64) lost to Collingwood (162) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 98) Collingwood by 49
Carlton (156) defeated Richmond (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 89) Carlton by 20
Fremantle (87) lost to Sydney (96) at Subiaco (WA) [Sydney by 9) Fremantle by 13
Western Bulldogs (60) lost to Geelong (161) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 101) Western Bulldogs by 11
Port Adelaide (61) defeated West Coast (60) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 1) Port Adelaide by 15
Brisbane Lions (97) lost to Adelaide (104) at Gabba (QLD) [Adelaide by 7) Adelaide by 2
Hawthorn (99) defeated Melbourne (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 21) Hawthorn by 13
North Melbourne (63) lost to St Kilda (115) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 52) St Kilda by 18

Round 21

Geelong (121) defeated Carlton (79) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 42) Geelong by 24
Hawthorn (155) defeated Fremantle (39) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 116) Hawthorn by 17
St Kilda (115) defeated Richmond (94) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 21) St Kilda by 40
Collingwood (54) defeated Adelaide (51) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 3) Collingwood by 49
Sydney (114) defeated Western Bulldogs (70) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 44) Western Bulldogs by 6
Port Adelaide (112) defeated Melbourne (83) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 29) Port Adelaide by 1
Essendon (68) lost to Brisbane Lions (95) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 27) Essendon by 15
West Coast (94) lost to North Melbourne (110) at Subiaco (WA) [North Melbourne by 16) North Melbourne by 6

Round 22

Fremantle (93) defeated Carlton (87) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 6) Fremantle by 3
Geelong (112) defeated West Coast (68) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 44) Geelong by 69
Hawthorn (98) defeated Collingwood (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 3) Collingwood by 23
Adelaide (65) defeated St Kilda (37) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 28) St Kilda by 5
Western Bulldogs (107) defeated Essendon (78) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 29) Western Bulldogs by 36
Brisbane Lions (68) lost to Sydney (106) at Gabba (QLD) [Sydney by 38) Sydney by 7
Richmond (112) lost to Port Adelaide (122) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 10) Richmond by 7
Melbourne (103) lost to North Melbourne (113) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 10) North Melbourne by 4

Qualifying Final

Geelong (79) lost to St Kilda (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 4) Geelong by 11
Fremantle (94) defeated Hawthorn (64) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 30) Hawthorn by 6
Collingwood (124) defeated Western Bulldogs (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 62) Collingwood by 18
Sydney (99) defeated Carlton (94) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 5) Sydney by 20

Semi Final

Geelong (135) defeated Fremantle (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 69) Geelong by 39
Western Bulldogs (77) defeated Sydney (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 5) Western Bulldogs by 15

Preliminary Final

Collingwood (120) defeated Geelong (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 41) Collingwood by 12
St Kilda (88) defeated Western Bulldogs (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 24) St Kilda by 2

Grand Final

Collingwood (68) drew with St Kilda (68) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Collingwood by 23

Grand Final

Collingwood (108) defeated St Kilda (52) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 56) Collingwood by 21

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SKILL

90%

LUCK

10%

Open Door

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Collingwood	72.9	69.8	71.3
2	Geelong	69.2	63.7	66.5
3	St Kilda	53.8	69.8	61.8
4	Western Bulldogs	58.4	62.7	60.6
5	Hawthorn	58.4	61.4	59.9
6	Sydney	58.1	59.6	58.9
7	Carlton	60.3	54.3	57.3
8	Adelaide	52.7	61.0	56.8
9	North Melbourne	56.3	52.9	54.6
10	Fremantle	56.5	52.3	54.4
11	Melbourne	53.0	52.6	52.8
12	Essendon	57.2	47.2	52.2
13	Brisbane Lions	49.8	52.2	51.0
14	Port Adelaide	50.7	49.3	50.0
15	West Coast	50.0	48.6	49.3
16	Richmond	51.5	47.0	49.3