INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

• They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.

• They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.

• They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).

• They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

• Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.

• Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

• Scores, obviously.

• Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.

• Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.

• Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.

• Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.

• Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

• Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.

• Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

• Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.

• Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.

• Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.

• Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.

• The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

• Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.

• Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.

• Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

• Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.

• Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.

• Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Wed Jun 13 12:23:17 2018 (R26)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

In 2009, algorithm SQUIGGLE5 correctly tipped 130 games at an accuracy of 70.27%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 1

Richmond (67) lost to Carlton (150) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 83) Richmond by 3
Hawthorn (103) lost to Geelong (111) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 8) Geelong by 9
Collingwood (86) lost to Adelaide (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 4) Collingwood by 17
Brisbane Lions (95) defeated West Coast (86) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 9) Brisbane Lions by 32
St Kilda (80) defeated Sydney (65) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 15) St Kilda by 13
Melbourne (67) lost to North Melbourne (101) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 34) North Melbourne by 29
Port Adelaide (107) defeated Essendon (66) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 41) Port Adelaide by 25
Fremantle (94) lost to Western Bulldogs (157) at Subiaco (WA) [Western Bulldogs by 63) Western Bulldogs by 0

Round 2

Adelaide (69) lost to St Kilda (101) at Football Park (SA) [St Kilda by 32) Adelaide by 12
Collingwood (117) defeated Melbourne (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 53) Collingwood by 35
Geelong (105) defeated Richmond (85) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 20) Geelong by 65
Carlton (119) defeated Brisbane Lions (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 19) Carlton by 29
Sydney (143) defeated Hawthorn (105) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 38) Hawthorn by 5
Essendon (109) defeated Fremantle (71) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 38) Fremantle by 5
Western Bulldogs (80) defeated North Melbourne (65) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 15) Western Bulldogs by 14
West Coast (125) defeated Port Adelaide (75) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 50) Port Adelaide by 10

Round 3

Geelong (122) defeated Collingwood (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 27) Geelong by 26
St Kilda (161) defeated West Coast (64) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 97) St Kilda by 35
Carlton (112) lost to Essendon (116) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 4) Carlton by 23
Brisbane Lions (100) defeated Sydney (67) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 33) Sydney by 6
Port Adelaide (147) defeated Melbourne (90) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 57) Port Adelaide by 41
North Melbourne (69) lost to Hawthorn (123) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 54) Hawthorn by 20
Fremantle (80) lost to Adelaide (104) at Subiaco (WA) [Adelaide by 24) Adelaide by 0
Western Bulldogs (110) defeated Richmond (63) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 47) Western Bulldogs by 22

Round 4

Brisbane Lions (73) lost to Collingwood (90) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 17) Collingwood by 3
Sydney (84) defeated Carlton (67) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 17) Sydney by 14
Hawthorn (85) lost to Port Adelaide (115) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 30) Hawthorn by 40
St Kilda (111) defeated Fremantle (28) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 83) St Kilda by 39
Adelaide (86) lost to Geelong (134) at Football Park (SA) [Geelong by 48) Geelong by 22
North Melbourne (69) defeated Essendon (57) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 12) North Melbourne by 7
Richmond (92) lost to Melbourne (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 8) Richmond by 31
West Coast (116) defeated Western Bulldogs (83) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 33) Western Bulldogs by 25

Round 5

Port Adelaide (36) lost to St Kilda (102) at Football Park (SA) [St Kilda by 66) St Kilda by 12
Essendon (93) defeated Collingwood (88) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 5) Collingwood by 21
Hawthorn (74) defeated West Coast (56) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 18) Hawthorn by 36
North Melbourne (58) lost to Richmond (94) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 36) North Melbourne by 7
Fremantle (121) defeated Sydney (100) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 21) Sydney by 12
Geelong (126) defeated Brisbane Lions (33) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 93) Geelong by 54
Western Bulldogs (90) lost to Carlton (133) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 43) Western Bulldogs by 5
Melbourne (34) lost to Adelaide (51) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 17) Adelaide by 24

Round 6

North Melbourne (75) lost to Collingwood (127) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 52) Collingwood by 14
Hawthorn (106) defeated Carlton (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 4) Hawthorn by 6
West Coast (74) lost to Fremantle (87) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 13) West Coast by 7
Brisbane Lions (111) defeated Essendon (68) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 43) Brisbane Lions by 7
Port Adelaide (105) defeated Adelaide (79) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 26) Adelaide by 6
Sydney (94) defeated Richmond (75) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 19) Sydney by 20
Melbourne (68) lost to Geelong (111) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 43) Geelong by 69
Western Bulldogs (76) lost to St Kilda (104) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 28) St Kilda by 29

Round 7

Essendon (116) defeated Hawthorn (72) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 44) Hawthorn by 20
Geelong (116) defeated Sydney (65) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 51) Geelong by 53
Richmond (71) lost to Brisbane Lions (97) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 26) Richmond by 12
Carlton (81) lost to Fremantle (88) at Carrara (QLD) [Fremantle by 7) Carlton by 24
North Melbourne (125) defeated Port Adelaide (120) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 5) Port Adelaide by 3
Adelaide (86) lost to Western Bulldogs (118) at Football Park (SA) [Western Bulldogs by 32) Adelaide by 4
West Coast (90) defeated Melbourne (82) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 8) West Coast by 32
Collingwood (40) lost to St Kilda (128) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 88) St Kilda by 27

Round 8

Fremantle (65) lost to Hawthorn (87) at Subiaco (WA) [Hawthorn by 22) Hawthorn by 9
Melbourne (97) lost to Western Bulldogs (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 7) Western Bulldogs by 38
Geelong (119) defeated North Melbourne (49) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 70) Geelong by 61
Brisbane Lions (119) defeated Adelaide (83) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 36) Brisbane Lions by 8
Sydney (106) defeated West Coast (101) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 5) Sydney by 17
Port Adelaide (102) defeated Richmond (99) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 3) Port Adelaide by 23
Collingwood (53) lost to Carlton (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 51) Collingwood by 3
St Kilda (90) defeated Essendon (71) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 19) St Kilda by 41

Round 9

Geelong (116) defeated Western Bulldogs (114) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 2) Geelong by 36
North Melbourne (98) defeated Fremantle (85) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 13) North Melbourne by 10
Adelaide (104) defeated Carlton (60) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 44) Carlton by 4
West Coast (66) lost to Collingwood (88) at Subiaco (WA) [Collingwood by 22) West Coast by 3
Richmond (85) lost to Essendon (125) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 40) Essendon by 11
Sydney (123) defeated Port Adelaide (68) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 55) Sydney by 9
St Kilda (97) defeated Brisbane Lions (81) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 16) St Kilda by 48
Hawthorn (114) defeated Melbourne (92) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 22) Hawthorn by 33

Round 10

Carlton (111) defeated West Coast (70) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 41) Carlton by 23
Western Bulldogs (117) defeated Sydney (77) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 40) Sydney by 3
North Melbourne (81) lost to Brisbane Lions (99) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 18) North Melbourne by 1
St Kilda (83) defeated Melbourne (46) at Carrara (QLD) [St Kilda by 37) St Kilda by 53
Fremantle (112) lost to Richmond (115) at Subiaco (WA) [Richmond by 3) Fremantle by 8
Adelaide (106) defeated Hawthorn (79) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 27) Adelaide by 4
Essendon (70) lost to Geelong (134) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 64) Geelong by 37
Collingwood (114) defeated Port Adelaide (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 38) Collingwood by 20

Round 11

Richmond (89) lost to Western Bulldogs (157) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 68) Western Bulldogs by 29
North Melbourne (57) lost to St Kilda (103) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 46) St Kilda by 42
Brisbane Lions (106) lost to Carlton (112) at Gabba (QLD) [Carlton by 6) Brisbane Lions by 0
Port Adelaide (94) defeated Fremantle (70) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 24) Port Adelaide by 21
Essendon (114) lost to Adelaide (130) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 16) Essendon by 7
Hawthorn (86) defeated Sydney (75) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 11) Hawthorn by 13
West Coast (77) lost to Geelong (99) at Subiaco (WA) [Geelong by 22) Geelong by 40
Melbourne (60) lost to Collingwood (126) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 66) Collingwood by 30

Round 12

Carlton (95) lost to St Kilda (104) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 9) St Kilda by 27
Western Bulldogs (137) defeated Port Adelaide (44) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Western Bulldogs by 93) Western Bulldogs by 23
Richmond (92) defeated West Coast (77) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 15) Richmond by 1
Hawthorn (51) lost to Brisbane Lions (93) at York Park (TAS) [Brisbane Lions by 42) Hawthorn by 15
Adelaide (68) defeated North Melbourne (24) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 44) Adelaide by 25
Essendon (131) defeated Melbourne (83) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 48) Essendon by 25
Sydney (66) lost to Collingwood (89) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Collingwood by 23) Sydney by 2
Fremantle (75) lost to Geelong (94) at Subiaco (WA) [Geelong by 19) Geelong by 44

Round 13

Essendon (136) defeated Carlton (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 69) Carlton by 13
Collingwood (169) defeated Fremantle (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 84) Collingwood by 33
Adelaide (85) defeated Sydney (69) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 16) Adelaide by 22
Brisbane Lions (111) defeated Melbourne (56) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 55) Brisbane Lions by 40
West Coast (107) defeated Hawthorn (87) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 20) West Coast by 4
Geelong (122) defeated Port Adelaide (88) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 34) Geelong by 59
North Melbourne (86) lost to Western Bulldogs (108) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 22) Western Bulldogs by 42
St Kilda (92) defeated Richmond (36) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 56) St Kilda by 44

Round 14

Collingwood (102) defeated Essendon (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 35) Collingwood by 9
Melbourne (112) defeated West Coast (92) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 20) West Coast by 12
Port Adelaide (128) defeated Brisbane Lions (80) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 48) Port Adelaide by 2
Richmond (85) lost to Adelaide (102) at Carrara (QLD) [Adelaide by 17) Adelaide by 21
Western Bulldogs (133) defeated Hawthorn (45) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 88) Western Bulldogs by 29
Sydney (100) defeated North Melbourne (85) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 15) Sydney by 20
St Kilda (91) defeated Geelong (85) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 6) St Kilda by 6
Fremantle (100) lost to Carlton (115) at Subiaco (WA) [Carlton by 15) Carlton by 14

Round 15

Western Bulldogs (110) lost to Collingwood (111) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 1) Western Bulldogs by 17
Carlton (109) defeated Richmond (89) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 20) Carlton by 24
Sydney (72) lost to Essendon (107) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Essendon by 35) Sydney by 4
Brisbane Lions (108) defeated Geelong (65) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 43) Geelong by 21
Adelaide (130) defeated Fremantle (13) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 117) Adelaide by 32
Hawthorn (73) defeated North Melbourne (64) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 9) Hawthorn by 13
Melbourne (101) defeated Port Adelaide (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 11) Port Adelaide by 15
West Coast (70) lost to St Kilda (90) at Subiaco (WA) [St Kilda by 20) St Kilda by 29

Round 16

Essendon (70) lost to Western Bulldogs (103) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 33) Western Bulldogs by 23
Carlton (124) defeated Sydney (63) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 61) Carlton by 23
Geelong (117) defeated Melbourne (71) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 46) Geelong by 68
Collingwood (76) lost to Hawthorn (121) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 45) Collingwood by 23
Fremantle (47) lost to Brisbane Lions (62) at Subiaco (WA) [Brisbane Lions by 15) Brisbane Lions by 17
Port Adelaide (112) defeated West Coast (76) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 36) Port Adelaide by 15
Richmond (85) drew with North Melbourne (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Richmond by 2
St Kilda (105) defeated Adelaide (48) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 57) St Kilda by 23

Round 17

Carlton (40) lost to Collingwood (94) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 54) Collingwood by 3
Geelong (99) defeated Hawthorn (98) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 1) Geelong by 30
Fremantle (71) defeated West Coast (66) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 5) West Coast by 12
St Kilda (106) defeated Western Bulldogs (61) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 45) St Kilda by 10
Brisbane Lions (116) defeated North Melbourne (75) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 41) Brisbane Lions by 31
Melbourne (50) lost to Sydney (68) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Sydney by 18) Sydney by 26
Essendon (96) lost to Richmond (101) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 5) Essendon by 19
Adelaide (132) defeated Port Adelaide (62) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 70) Adelaide by 18

Round 18

North Melbourne (84) lost to Carlton (94) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 10) Carlton by 20
Geelong (93) defeated Adelaide (91) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 2) Geelong by 21
Western Bulldogs (111) defeated Fremantle (80) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 31) Western Bulldogs by 59
Collingwood (95) defeated Brisbane Lions (55) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 40) Collingwood by 12
Sydney (93) lost to St Kilda (94) at S.C.G. (NSW) [St Kilda by 1) St Kilda by 32
Melbourne (82) lost to Richmond (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 4) Richmond by 10
Port Adelaide (121) defeated Hawthorn (103) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 18) Port Adelaide by 1
West Coast (95) defeated Essendon (68) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 27) Essendon by 3

Round 19

Carlton (97) defeated Geelong (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 35) Geelong by 20
Western Bulldogs (97) lost to West Coast (102) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 5) Western Bulldogs by 41
Hawthorn (49) lost to St Kilda (74) at York Park (TAS) [St Kilda by 25) St Kilda by 27
Essendon (87) drew with Brisbane Lions (87) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Essendon by 3
Adelaide (68) lost to Collingwood (89) at Football Park (SA) [Collingwood by 21) Adelaide by 16
North Melbourne (123) defeated Melbourne (61) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 62) North Melbourne by 11
Richmond (68) lost to Sydney (123) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 55) Richmond by 4
Fremantle (116) defeated Port Adelaide (74) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 42) Port Adelaide by 0

Round 20

Hawthorn (67) lost to Adelaide (94) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 27) Adelaide by 9
Richmond (59) lost to Collingwood (152) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 93) Collingwood by 36
West Coast (110) defeated North Melbourne (72) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 38) West Coast by 14
Brisbane Lions (84) lost to Western Bulldogs (102) at Gabba (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 18) Western Bulldogs by 3
Sydney (87) lost to Geelong (92) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Geelong by 5) Geelong by 12
Melbourne (127) defeated Fremantle (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 63) Melbourne by 2
Port Adelaide (67) lost to Carlton (121) at Football Park (SA) [Carlton by 54) Carlton by 10
Essendon (110) defeated St Kilda (108) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 2) St Kilda by 38

Round 21

Western Bulldogs (110) defeated Geelong (96) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 14) Western Bulldogs by 4
Carlton (153) defeated Melbourne (96) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 57) Carlton by 33
Adelaide (122) defeated West Coast (48) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 74) Adelaide by 35
Richmond (93) lost to Hawthorn (135) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 42) Hawthorn by 17
Brisbane Lions (107) defeated Port Adelaide (92) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 15) Brisbane Lions by 33
St Kilda (59) lost to North Melbourne (64) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 5) St Kilda by 43
Collingwood (97) defeated Sydney (56) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 41) Collingwood by 33
Fremantle (141) defeated Essendon (87) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 54) Essendon by 13

Round 22

West Coast (125) defeated Richmond (45) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 80) West Coast by 21
Geelong (94) defeated Fremantle (54) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 40) Geelong by 48
Hawthorn (99) lost to Essendon (116) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 17) Essendon by 1
Carlton (104) lost to Adelaide (176) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 72) Adelaide by 4
Sydney (92) lost to Brisbane Lions (100) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 8) Sydney by 4
Port Adelaide (67) lost to North Melbourne (71) at Football Park (SA) [North Melbourne by 4) Port Adelaide by 6
Melbourne (67) lost to St Kilda (114) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 47) St Kilda by 49
Collingwood (76) lost to Western Bulldogs (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 24) Western Bulldogs by 2

Elimination Final

Adelaide (166) defeated Essendon (70) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 96) Adelaide by 37
Geelong (96) defeated Western Bulldogs (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 14) Western Bulldogs by 5
Brisbane Lions (111) defeated Carlton (104) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 7) Brisbane Lions by 9
St Kilda (80) defeated Collingwood (52) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 28) St Kilda by 10

Semi Final

Western Bulldogs (107) defeated Brisbane Lions (56) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 51) Western Bulldogs by 25
Collingwood (83) defeated Adelaide (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 5) Collingwood by 1

Preliminary Final

St Kilda (60) defeated Western Bulldogs (53) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 7) St Kilda by 10
Geelong (120) defeated Collingwood (47) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 73) Collingwood by 2

Grand Final

St Kilda (68) lost to Geelong (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 12) St Kilda by 6

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SKILL

90%

LUCK

10%

Open Door

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	St Kilda	56.4	79.6	68.0
2	Geelong	65.6	65.3	65.4
3	Adelaide	61.5	67.3	64.4
4	Western Bulldogs	64.0	63.8	63.9
5	Collingwood	59.1	59.7	59.4
6	Carlton	62.9	51.8	57.4
7	Brisbane Lions	54.1	57.2	55.6
8	Essendon	60.0	49.0	54.5
9	Hawthorn	56.4	51.7	54.1
10	West Coast	52.5	53.4	52.9
11	Sydney	51.6	53.5	52.6
12	North Melbourne	49.1	55.8	52.4
13	Port Adelaide	53.4	47.6	50.5
14	Fremantle	48.5	51.7	50.1
15	Melbourne	47.9	48.2	48.0
16	Richmond	49.8	44.9	47.3