Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.
At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.
Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:
Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.
* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.
FINALS CHANCES
Minor Premier | Top 4 | Top 8 | Bottom 4 | Spoon |
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MODE LADDER
Likelihood | If not, then... |
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A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.
A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.
In 1993, algorithm SQUIGGLE5 correctly tipped 106 games at an accuracy of 67.52%.
Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.
Round 1
Western Bulldogs (95) lost to Collingwood (115) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 20)
Western Bulldogs by 6
North Melbourne (166) defeated Brisbane Lions (143) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 23)
North Melbourne by 26
Carlton (112) lost to Fitzroy (118) at Princes Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 6)
Carlton by 26
Hawthorn (93) defeated Melbourne (70) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 23)
Hawthorn by 26
Geelong (136) defeated St Kilda (112) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 24)
Geelong by 17
Richmond (84) lost to Adelaide (178) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 94)
Adelaide by 28
West Coast (123) defeated Essendon (110) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 13)
West Coast by 38
Round 2
Richmond (126) defeated Brisbane Lions (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 46)
Richmond by 7
Essendon (132) drew with Carlton (132) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0)
Carlton by 5
Melbourne (95) lost to Western Bulldogs (103) at Princes Park (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 8)
Western Bulldogs by 21
St Kilda (132) defeated North Melbourne (125) at Waverley Park (VIC) [St Kilda by 7)
St Kilda by 31
Collingwood (113) defeated Geelong (103) at Victoria Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 10)
Geelong by 9
Sydney (92) lost to Hawthorn (149) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Hawthorn by 57)
Hawthorn by 42
Adelaide (101) defeated West Coast (86) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 15)
Adelaide by 6
Round 3
Fitzroy (98) lost to Western Bulldogs (101) at Princes Park (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 3)
Western Bulldogs by 13
St Kilda (132) defeated Sydney (94) at Waverley Park (VIC) [St Kilda by 38)
St Kilda by 50
Brisbane Lions (115) defeated Melbourne (113) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 2)
Melbourne by 18
West Coast (109) defeated Richmond (65) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 44)
West Coast by 60
Carlton (112) defeated Hawthorn (110) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 2)
Hawthorn by 18
Geelong (84) lost to North Melbourne (108) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [North Melbourne by 24)
Geelong by 50
Essendon (109) lost to Collingwood (139) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 30)
Collingwood by 18
Round 4
Adelaide (103) defeated Fitzroy (102) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 1)
Adelaide by 30
Hawthorn (79) lost to Geelong (125) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Geelong by 46)
Hawthorn by 10
North Melbourne (128) defeated Melbourne (99) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 29)
North Melbourne by 17
Collingwood (104) lost to St Kilda (126) at Victoria Park (VIC) [St Kilda by 22)
Collingwood by 5
Sydney (95) lost to Essendon (181) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Essendon by 86)
Essendon by 10
West Coast (98) defeated Brisbane Lions (46) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 52)
West Coast by 63
Round 5
Richmond (122) lost to North Melbourne (159) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 37)
North Melbourne by 37
Western Bulldogs (127) defeated Essendon (81) at Western Oval (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 46)
Western Bulldogs by 7
Fitzroy (167) defeated Sydney (74) at Princes Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 93)
Fitzroy by 37
St Kilda (78) lost to Carlton (123) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Carlton by 45)
St Kilda by 8
Melbourne (77) defeated Adelaide (68) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 9)
Adelaide by 11
Brisbane Lions (126) lost to Geelong (127) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 1)
Geelong by 44
Round 6
Melbourne (153) defeated Richmond (60) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 93)
Melbourne by 15
Adelaide (88) lost to Hawthorn (105) at Football Park (SA) [Hawthorn by 17)
Adelaide by 8
Essendon (156) defeated Geelong (132) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 24)
Geelong by 15
North Melbourne (229) defeated Sydney (105) at Princes Park (VIC) [North Melbourne by 124)
North Melbourne by 50
Brisbane Lions (110) defeated Fitzroy (83) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 27)
Fitzroy by 23
Carlton (101) lost to Collingwood (137) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 36)
Carlton by 2
West Coast (125) defeated Western Bulldogs (84) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 41)
West Coast by 20
Round 7
Hawthorn (113) defeated Brisbane Lions (70) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 43)
Hawthorn by 44
Fitzroy (79) defeated Melbourne (78) at Princes Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 1)
Fitzroy by 1
Western Bulldogs (110) lost to North Melbourne (141) at Western Oval (VIC) [North Melbourne by 31)
Western Bulldogs by 0
Richmond (136) defeated St Kilda (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 32)
St Kilda by 38
Collingwood (101) defeated Adelaide (76) at Victoria Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 25)
Collingwood by 14
Geelong (105) lost to West Coast (113) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [West Coast by 8)
Geelong by 5
Sydney (95) lost to Carlton (139) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Carlton by 44)
Carlton by 43
Round 8
West Coast (58) lost to Fitzroy (76) at W.A.C.A. (WA) [Fitzroy by 18)
West Coast by 31
Carlton (78) lost to Western Bulldogs (106) at Princes Park (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 28)
Carlton by 5
St Kilda (67) lost to Essendon (125) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Essendon by 58)
Essendon by 3
Collingwood (94) defeated Hawthorn (76) at Victoria Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 18)
Collingwood by 3
Geelong (128) defeated Richmond (78) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 50)
Geelong by 48
Brisbane Lions (219) defeated Sydney (57) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 162)
Brisbane Lions by 25
Adelaide (123) defeated North Melbourne (121) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 2)
Adelaide by 6
Round 9
North Melbourne (134) defeated Carlton (96) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 38)
North Melbourne by 8
Fitzroy (92) defeated Collingwood (73) at Princes Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 19)
Collingwood by 9
Western Bulldogs (143) defeated St Kilda (79) at Western Oval (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 64)
Western Bulldogs by 12
Hawthorn (131) defeated Richmond (121) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 10)
Hawthorn by 33
Essendon (111) defeated Adelaide (65) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 46)
Essendon by 12
Melbourne (101) defeated West Coast (88) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 13)
West Coast by 6
Sydney (104) lost to Geelong (129) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Geelong by 25)
Geelong by 52
Round 10
Essendon (129) defeated Fitzroy (125) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 4)
Essendon by 9
Carlton (128) defeated Melbourne (74) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 54)
Melbourne by 1
Western Bulldogs (62) lost to Hawthorn (132) at Western Oval (VIC) [Hawthorn by 70)
Western Bulldogs by 0
Richmond (122) defeated Sydney (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 29)
Richmond by 38
Collingwood (43) lost to North Melbourne (126) at Victoria Park (VIC) [North Melbourne by 83)
Collingwood by 2
St Kilda (64) lost to West Coast (66) at Waverley Park (VIC) [West Coast by 2)
West Coast by 13
Brisbane Lions (85) lost to Adelaide (122) at Gabba (QLD) [Adelaide by 37)
Brisbane Lions by 1
Round 11
Fitzroy (56) lost to Richmond (82) at Princes Park (VIC) [Richmond by 26)
Fitzroy by 22
St Kilda (130) defeated Brisbane Lions (75) at Waverley Park (VIC) [St Kilda by 55)
St Kilda by 18
Geelong (89) lost to Carlton (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 29)
Carlton by 7
Sydney (63) lost to West Coast (120) at S.C.G. (NSW) [West Coast by 57)
West Coast by 42
Adelaide (107) defeated Western Bulldogs (62) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 45)
Adelaide by 9
Melbourne (160) defeated Collingwood (109) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 51)
Collingwood by 7
Hawthorn (86) lost to Essendon (116) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Essendon by 30)
Hawthorn by 6
Round 12
West Coast (101) lost to North Melbourne (107) at W.A.C.A. (WA) [North Melbourne by 6)
West Coast by 12
Melbourne (105) defeated Essendon (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 34)
Essendon by 11
Western Bulldogs (94) defeated Sydney (69) at Western Oval (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 25)
Western Bulldogs by 56
Hawthorn (152) defeated St Kilda (74) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 78)
Hawthorn by 18
Carlton (156) defeated Adelaide (77) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 79)
Carlton by 16
Geelong (113) defeated Fitzroy (106) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 7)
Geelong by 11
Brisbane Lions (97) lost to Collingwood (138) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 41)
Collingwood by 10
Round 13
North Melbourne (80) lost to Hawthorn (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 3)
North Melbourne by 3
Western Bulldogs (121) defeated Brisbane Lions (93) at Western Oval (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 28)
Western Bulldogs by 27
Essendon (141) defeated Richmond (63) at Princes Park (VIC) [Essendon by 78)
Essendon by 25
Fitzroy (79) lost to St Kilda (112) at Waverley Park (VIC) [St Kilda by 33)
Fitzroy by 8
Collingwood (71) lost to West Coast (94) at Victoria Park (VIC) [West Coast by 23)
West Coast by 2
Sydney (149) defeated Melbourne (109) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 40)
Melbourne by 41
Adelaide (115) defeated Geelong (95) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 20)
Adelaide by 10
Round 14
Sydney (82) lost to Adelaide (126) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Adelaide by 44)
Adelaide by 27
Essendon (155) defeated Brisbane Lions (39) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 116)
Essendon by 45
Fitzroy (119) defeated North Melbourne (118) at Princes Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 1)
North Melbourne by 21
St Kilda (46) lost to Melbourne (92) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Melbourne by 46)
Melbourne by 6
Geelong (110) defeated Western Bulldogs (54) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 56)
Geelong by 11
Richmond (117) lost to Collingwood (147) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 30)
Collingwood by 17
West Coast (91) lost to Carlton (92) at Subiaco (WA) [Carlton by 1)
West Coast by 17
Round 15
North Melbourne (129) defeated Essendon (91) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 38)
North Melbourne by 3
Carlton (131) defeated Brisbane Lions (97) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 34)
Carlton by 50
Collingwood (169) defeated Sydney (77) at Victoria Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 92)
Collingwood by 54
Hawthorn (110) defeated Fitzroy (64) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 46)
Hawthorn by 19
Melbourne (141) defeated Geelong (127) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 14)
Melbourne by 3
Richmond (62) lost to Western Bulldogs (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 16)
Western Bulldogs by 8
Adelaide (156) defeated St Kilda (63) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 93)
Adelaide by 21
Round 16
Adelaide (171) defeated Richmond (32) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 139)
Adelaide by 35
Fitzroy (95) lost to Carlton (181) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 86)
Carlton by 17
Collingwood (145) defeated Western Bulldogs (81) at Victoria Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 64)
Collingwood by 9
St Kilda (177) defeated Geelong (106) at Waverley Park (VIC) [St Kilda by 71)
Geelong by 14
Melbourne (90) lost to Hawthorn (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 16)
Hawthorn by 11
Brisbane Lions (104) lost to North Melbourne (146) at Gabba (QLD) [North Melbourne by 42)
North Melbourne by 37
Essendon (89) defeated West Coast (87) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 2)
Essendon by 3
Round 17
North Melbourne (97) lost to St Kilda (112) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 15)
North Melbourne by 28
Geelong (87) defeated Collingwood (79) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Geelong by 8)
Collingwood by 8
Western Bulldogs (97) lost to Melbourne (110) at Western Oval (VIC) [Melbourne by 13)
Melbourne by 12
Carlton (83) lost to Essendon (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 21)
Carlton by 0
Brisbane Lions (118) defeated Richmond (99) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 19)
Brisbane Lions by 11
Hawthorn (159) defeated Sydney (67) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 92)
Hawthorn by 72
West Coast (107) defeated Adelaide (70) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 37)
West Coast by 14
Round 18
Collingwood (55) lost to Essendon (123) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 68)
Essendon by 11
Western Bulldogs (146) defeated Fitzroy (84) at Western Oval (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 62)
Western Bulldogs by 2
North Melbourne (72) lost to Geelong (166) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 94)
North Melbourne by 18
Hawthorn (91) lost to Carlton (122) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Carlton by 31)
Hawthorn by 5
Richmond (81) lost to West Coast (100) at Princes Park (VIC) [West Coast by 19)
West Coast by 31
Melbourne (138) defeated Brisbane Lions (49) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 89)
Melbourne by 40
Sydney (118) lost to St Kilda (155) at S.C.G. (NSW) [St Kilda by 37)
St Kilda by 30
Round 19
Essendon (117) defeated Sydney (96) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 21)
Essendon by 76
St Kilda (68) lost to Collingwood (80) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 12)
Collingwood by 7
Fitzroy (99) defeated Adelaide (94) at Princes Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 5)
Adelaide by 14
Richmond (83) lost to Carlton (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 23)
Carlton by 40
Geelong (150) defeated Hawthorn (68) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 82)
Geelong by 6
Brisbane Lions (71) lost to West Coast (131) at Gabba (QLD) [West Coast by 60)
West Coast by 27
Round 20
Sydney (99) lost to Fitzroy (114) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Fitzroy by 15)
Fitzroy by 14
Carlton (77) lost to St Kilda (84) at Princes Park (VIC) [St Kilda by 7)
Carlton by 24
Essendon (98) defeated Western Bulldogs (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 13)
Essendon by 19
North Melbourne (128) defeated Richmond (84) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 44)
North Melbourne by 31
West Coast (67) defeated Hawthorn (45) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 22)
West Coast by 18
Adelaide (105) defeated Melbourne (46) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 59)
Adelaide by 14
Round 21
Fitzroy (147) defeated Brisbane Lions (43) at Princes Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 104)
Fitzroy by 26
Geelong (126) defeated Essendon (94) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 32)
Geelong by 12
Hawthorn (115) defeated Adelaide (88) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 27)
Hawthorn by 4
Collingwood (63) lost to Carlton (117) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 54)
Carlton by 9
Western Bulldogs (94) defeated West Coast (52) at Western Oval (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 42)
West Coast by 9
Richmond (54) lost to Melbourne (175) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 121)
Melbourne by 23
Sydney (98) lost to North Melbourne (160) at S.C.G. (NSW) [North Melbourne by 62)
North Melbourne by 41
Round 22
West Coast (96) lost to Geelong (116) at W.A.C.A. (WA) [Geelong by 20)
West Coast by 10
Carlton (111) defeated Sydney (110) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 1)
Carlton by 66
St Kilda (125) defeated Richmond (82) at Waverley Park (VIC) [St Kilda by 43)
St Kilda by 21
North Melbourne (123) lost to Western Bulldogs (135) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 12)
North Melbourne by 9
Brisbane Lions (106) lost to Hawthorn (163) at Gabba (QLD) [Hawthorn by 57)
Hawthorn by 34
Melbourne (75) lost to Fitzroy (98) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fitzroy by 23)
Melbourne by 20
Adelaide (135) defeated Collingwood (111) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 24)
Adelaide by 26
Elimination Final
North Melbourne (69) lost to West Coast (120) at Waverley Park (VIC) [West Coast by 51)
North Melbourne by 1
Essendon (98) lost to Carlton (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 2)
Essendon by 2
Hawthorn (95) lost to Adelaide (110) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 15)
Hawthorn by 4
Semi Final
Carlton (86) defeated Adelaide (68) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Carlton by 18)
Carlton by 2
Essendon (108) defeated West Coast (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 32)
West Coast by 0
Preliminary Final
Essendon (111) defeated Adelaide (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 11)
Essendon by 6
Grand Final
Essendon (133) defeated Carlton (89) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 44)
Essendon by 7