INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

• They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.

• They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.

• They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).

• They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

• Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.

• Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

• Scores, obviously.

• Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.

• Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.

• Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.

• Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.

• Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

• Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.

• Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

• Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.

• Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.

• Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.

• Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.

• The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

• Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.

• Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.

• Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

• Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.

• Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.

• Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

In 1989, algorithm SQUIGGLE5 correctly tipped 105 games at an accuracy of 65.62%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 1

West Coast (96) lost to Essendon (112) at W.A.C.A. (WA) [Essendon by 16) West Coast by 13
St Kilda (136) defeated Brisbane Lions (97) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 39) St Kilda by 17
Carlton (73) lost to Western Bulldogs (132) at Princes Park (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 59) Carlton by 8
Collingwood (93) defeated Hawthorn (83) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 10) Hawthorn by 33
Melbourne (116) defeated Fitzroy (111) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 5) Melbourne by 12
North Melbourne (125) defeated Geelong (123) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 2) Geelong by 4
Sydney (89) defeated Richmond (73) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 16) Sydney by 26

Round 2

St Kilda (96) defeated Carlton (92) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 4) Carlton by 6
Fitzroy (132) defeated Collingwood (107) at Princes Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 25) Collingwood by 12
Essendon (94) defeated Melbourne (68) at Windy Hill (VIC) [Essendon by 26) Essendon by 11
Richmond (156) defeated Western Bulldogs (88) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 68) Western Bulldogs by 22
North Melbourne (72) lost to Hawthorn (141) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 69) Hawthorn by 44
Brisbane Lions (123) defeated Sydney (65) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 58) Sydney by 25
Geelong (175) defeated West Coast (80) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 95) Geelong by 7

Round 3

Collingwood (135) defeated Brisbane Lions (75) at Victoria Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 60) Collingwood by 31
Hawthorn (135) defeated Essendon (91) at Princes Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 44) Hawthorn by 25
St Kilda (122) lost to Fitzroy (132) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 10) Fitzroy by 9
Western Bulldogs (66) lost to North Melbourne (84) at Western Oval (VIC) [North Melbourne by 18) Western Bulldogs by 21
Richmond (61) lost to Melbourne (122) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 61) Richmond by 6
Geelong (117) defeated Carlton (64) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 53) Geelong by 26
Sydney (134) defeated West Coast (83) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 51) Sydney by 15

Round 4

Melbourne (79) defeated Brisbane Lions (53) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 26) Melbourne by 35
Collingwood (159) defeated St Kilda (95) at Victoria Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 64) Collingwood by 18
Fitzroy (79) lost to Sydney (153) at Princes Park (VIC) [Sydney by 74) Fitzroy by 10
Western Bulldogs (87) lost to Geelong (99) at Western Oval (VIC) [Geelong by 12) Geelong by 7
West Coast (72) lost to North Melbourne (115) at W.A.C.A. (WA) [North Melbourne by 43) West Coast by 14
Carlton (110) lost to Essendon (138) at Princes Park (VIC) [Essendon by 28) Essendon by 16
Richmond (66) lost to Hawthorn (110) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 44) Hawthorn by 40

Round 5

Hawthorn (125) defeated Carlton (71) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 54) Hawthorn by 45
Essendon (138) defeated St Kilda (84) at Windy Hill (VIC) [Essendon by 54) Essendon by 20
Fitzroy (113) defeated Geelong (112) at Princes Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 1) Geelong by 17
Melbourne (82) defeated Western Bulldogs (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 11) Melbourne by 4
Brisbane Lions (73) lost to West Coast (125) at Carrara (QLD) [West Coast by 52) Brisbane Lions by 4
Sydney (77) defeated Collingwood (66) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 11) Sydney by 6
North Melbourne (134) lost to Richmond (171) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 37) Richmond by 0

Round 6

West Coast (81) lost to Fitzroy (89) at W.A.C.A. (WA) [Fitzroy by 8) West Coast by 5
Carlton (102) defeated Richmond (66) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Carlton by 36) Richmond by 7
Melbourne (64) lost to Collingwood (124) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 60) Collingwood by 4
Hawthorn (171) defeated Geelong (163) at Princes Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 8) Hawthorn by 30
St Kilda (95) defeated Sydney (67) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 28) Sydney by 17
Brisbane Lions (59) defeated Western Bulldogs (51) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 8) Western Bulldogs by 12
North Melbourne (121) defeated Essendon (105) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 16) Essendon by 16

Round 7

Sydney (58) lost to North Melbourne (67) at S.C.G. (NSW) [North Melbourne by 9) Sydney by 18
Melbourne (86) defeated Carlton (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 6) Melbourne by 6
Collingwood (106) defeated Western Bulldogs (78) at Victoria Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 28) Collingwood by 18
Hawthorn (165) defeated Fitzroy (84) at Princes Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 81) Hawthorn by 36
Geelong (228) defeated St Kilda (109) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 119) Geelong by 38
Richmond (92) defeated West Coast (90) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Richmond by 2) Richmond by 14
Brisbane Lions (81) lost to Essendon (112) at Carrara (QLD) [Essendon by 31) Essendon by 16

Round 8

Geelong (179) defeated Brisbane Lions (50) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 129) Geelong by 63
Carlton (80) lost to Collingwood (109) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 29) Collingwood by 22
Essendon (145) defeated Richmond (87) at Windy Hill (VIC) [Essendon by 58) Essendon by 14
Western Bulldogs (64) defeated Fitzroy (63) at Western Oval (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 1) Western Bulldogs by 3
Hawthorn (157) defeated Sydney (83) at Princes Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 74) Hawthorn by 40
St Kilda (115) defeated North Melbourne (112) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 3) North Melbourne by 13
West Coast (93) lost to Melbourne (95) at Subiaco (WA) [Melbourne by 2) West Coast by 3

Round 9

North Melbourne (165) defeated Brisbane Lions (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 94) North Melbourne by 37
Carlton (159) defeated Fitzroy (122) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 37) Fitzroy by 3
Essendon (125) defeated Collingwood (58) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Essendon by 67) Collingwood by 11
Richmond (77) lost to Geelong (211) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 134) Geelong by 35
St Kilda (118) defeated West Coast (83) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 35) St Kilda by 7
Western Bulldogs (73) lost to Hawthorn (117) at Western Oval (VIC) [Hawthorn by 44) Hawthorn by 34
Sydney (43) lost to Melbourne (52) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Melbourne by 9) Sydney by 13

Round 10

North Melbourne (83) lost to Melbourne (113) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 30) Melbourne by 6
Carlton (115) lost to Brisbane Lions (118) at Princes Park (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 3) Carlton by 37
Collingwood (88) lost to Geelong (154) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 66) Geelong by 11
Essendon (122) defeated Fitzroy (69) at Windy Hill (VIC) [Essendon by 53) Essendon by 21
Western Bulldogs (98) defeated Sydney (66) at Western Oval (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 32) Western Bulldogs by 12
St Kilda (99) defeated Richmond (92) at Waverley Park (VIC) [St Kilda by 7) St Kilda by 3
West Coast (105) lost to Hawthorn (110) at Subiaco (WA) [Hawthorn by 5) Hawthorn by 41

Round 11

Sydney (57) lost to Carlton (85) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Carlton by 28) Sydney by 11
Richmond (45) defeated Brisbane Lions (26) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 19) Richmond by 22
Fitzroy (14) lost to North Melbourne (49) at Princes Park (VIC) [North Melbourne by 35) North Melbourne by 8
Western Bulldogs (62) defeated St Kilda (54) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 8) Western Bulldogs by 13
West Coast (81) lost to Collingwood (116) at Subiaco (WA) [Collingwood by 35) Collingwood by 6
Geelong (89) defeated Essendon (35) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 54) Geelong by 14
Hawthorn (54) lost to Melbourne (69) at Princes Park (VIC) [Melbourne by 15) Hawthorn by 25

Round 12

West Coast (105) defeated Western Bulldogs (77) at W.A.C.A. (WA) [West Coast by 28) West Coast by 2
Carlton (51) defeated North Melbourne (40) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 11) North Melbourne by 16
Collingwood (123) defeated Richmond (69) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 54) Collingwood by 19
Essendon (50) lost to Sydney (55) at Windy Hill (VIC) [Sydney by 5) Essendon by 28
Melbourne (20) lost to Geelong (89) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 69) Geelong by 15
St Kilda (54) lost to Hawthorn (72) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [Hawthorn by 18) Hawthorn by 40
Brisbane Lions (114) lost to Fitzroy (128) at Carrara (QLD) [Fitzroy by 14) Fitzroy by 6

Round 13

Hawthorn (106) defeated Brisbane Lions (35) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 71) Hawthorn by 67
Carlton (64) defeated West Coast (41) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 23) Carlton by 21
Collingwood (108) defeated North Melbourne (56) at Victoria Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 52) North Melbourne by 3
Essendon (28) defeated Western Bulldogs (23) at Windy Hill (VIC) [Essendon by 5) Essendon by 7
Fitzroy (95) defeated Richmond (67) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 28) Fitzroy by 2
St Kilda (56) lost to Melbourne (64) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [Melbourne by 8) Melbourne by 14
Sydney (103) lost to Geelong (111) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Geelong by 8) Geelong by 38

Round 14

North Melbourne (127) defeated St Kilda (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 60) North Melbourne by 14
Essendon (61) defeated Carlton (58) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Essendon by 3) Essendon by 9
Geelong (82) defeated Fitzroy (58) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 24) Geelong by 67
Hawthorn (141) defeated West Coast (50) at Princes Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 91) Hawthorn by 47
Richmond (75) defeated Sydney (50) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 25) Sydney by 2
Brisbane Lions (99) lost to Melbourne (113) at Carrara (QLD) [Melbourne by 14) Melbourne by 17
Western Bulldogs (105) defeated Collingwood (57) at Western Oval (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 48) Collingwood by 12

Round 15

Collingwood (90) lost to Carlton (96) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Carlton by 6) Collingwood by 9
Essendon (160) defeated West Coast (18) at Windy Hill (VIC) [Essendon by 142) Essendon by 30
Fitzroy (92) defeated St Kilda (86) at Princes Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 6) Fitzroy by 4
Melbourne (117) defeated North Melbourne (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 36) North Melbourne by 3
Brisbane Lions (77) lost to Geelong (151) at Carrara (QLD) [Geelong by 74) Geelong by 60
Sydney (117) defeated Western Bulldogs (77) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 40) Sydney by 4
Richmond (104) lost to Hawthorn (142) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 38) Hawthorn by 39

Round 16

Western Bulldogs (46) drew with Carlton (46) at Western Oval (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Western Bulldogs by 3
Hawthorn (137) defeated Collingwood (77) at Princes Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 60) Hawthorn by 19
Richmond (66) lost to Essendon (99) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 33) Essendon by 21
Geelong (109) lost to Melbourne (112) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Melbourne by 3) Geelong by 24
Brisbane Lions (94) defeated St Kilda (90) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 4) St Kilda by 4
North Melbourne (66) lost to Fitzroy (107) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fitzroy by 41) North Melbourne by 15
West Coast (112) defeated Sydney (70) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 42) Sydney by 2

Round 17

Richmond (51) lost to Fitzroy (123) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fitzroy by 72) Fitzroy by 3
Carlton (106) defeated Melbourne (79) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 27) Melbourne by 8
Geelong (104) lost to Collingwood (125) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 21) Geelong by 25
St Kilda (106) lost to Essendon (133) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [Essendon by 27) Essendon by 25
North Melbourne (78) lost to Hawthorn (154) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 76) Hawthorn by 25
Sydney (95) defeated Brisbane Lions (70) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 25) Sydney by 37
Western Bulldogs (72) lost to West Coast (109) at Western Oval (VIC) [West Coast by 37) Western Bulldogs by 25

Round 18

Carlton (90) lost to Hawthorn (95) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 5) Hawthorn by 27
Collingwood (81) lost to Sydney (85) at Victoria Park (VIC) [Sydney by 4) Collingwood by 25
Fitzroy (151) defeated Melbourne (103) at Princes Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 48) Melbourne by 9
St Kilda (90) lost to Geelong (113) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [Geelong by 23) Geelong by 45
Brisbane Lions (167) defeated North Melbourne (84) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 83) North Melbourne by 23
Western Bulldogs (23) lost to Essendon (51) at Western Oval (VIC) [Essendon by 28) Essendon by 13
West Coast (130) defeated Richmond (79) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 51) West Coast by 14

Round 19

Richmond (76) lost to Carlton (104) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Carlton by 28) Carlton by 17
Essendon (101) defeated Brisbane Lions (47) at Windy Hill (VIC) [Essendon by 54) Essendon by 50
Fitzroy (72) defeated West Coast (40) at Princes Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 32) Fitzroy by 24
Geelong (124) defeated Western Bulldogs (74) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 50) Geelong by 41
Melbourne (63) lost to Hawthorn (87) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 24) Hawthorn by 21
North Melbourne (80) defeated Collingwood (78) at Waverley Park (VIC) [North Melbourne by 2) Collingwood by 9
Sydney (159) defeated St Kilda (109) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 50) Sydney by 16

Round 20

West Coast (126) defeated Geelong (82) at W.A.C.A. (WA) [West Coast by 44) Geelong by 30
Carlton (133) defeated St Kilda (132) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 1) Carlton by 15
Fitzroy (71) lost to Collingwood (104) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 33) Collingwood by 4
Essendon (128) defeated North Melbourne (112) at Windy Hill (VIC) [Essendon by 16) Essendon by 21
Western Bulldogs (107) defeated Richmond (29) at Western Oval (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 78) Western Bulldogs by 11
Melbourne (98) defeated Sydney (87) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 11) Melbourne by 18
Brisbane Lions (77) defeated Hawthorn (61) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 16) Hawthorn by 45

Round 21

Sydney (110) defeated Essendon (104) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 6) Essendon by 12
Fitzroy (68) lost to Brisbane Lions (81) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 13) Fitzroy by 27
Collingwood (83) defeated Richmond (37) at Victoria Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 46) Collingwood by 32
Hawthorn (134) defeated Western Bulldogs (59) at Princes Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 75) Hawthorn by 22
Geelong (139) defeated North Melbourne (117) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 22) Geelong by 37
Melbourne (72) lost to St Kilda (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 32) Melbourne by 17
West Coast (148) defeated Carlton (72) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 76) West Coast by 6

Round 22

North Melbourne (93) lost to Sydney (136) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 43) North Melbourne by 11
Collingwood (129) defeated West Coast (80) at Victoria Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 49) Collingwood by 19
Melbourne (89) lost to Essendon (108) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 19) Essendon by 14
Fitzroy (96) defeated Western Bulldogs (81) at Princes Park (VIC) [Fitzroy by 15) Fitzroy by 0
Geelong (162) defeated Richmond (86) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 76) Geelong by 60
Hawthorn (181) defeated St Kilda (91) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 90) Hawthorn by 41
Brisbane Lions (105) defeated Carlton (70) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 35) Carlton by 0

Elimination Final

Melbourne (111) defeated Collingwood (88) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Melbourne by 23) Collingwood by 8
Essendon (157) defeated Geelong (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 76) Essendon by 1

Semi Final

Hawthorn (112) defeated Essendon (76) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Hawthorn by 36) Hawthorn by 4
Geelong (153) defeated Melbourne (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 63) Geelong by 12

Preliminary Final

Essendon (70) lost to Geelong (164) at Waverley Park (VIC) [Geelong by 94) Essendon by 4

Grand Final

Hawthorn (144) defeated Geelong (138) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 6) Hawthorn by 4